Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 302345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TO
ERODE.  EXPECT STRATUS TO GRADUALLY FALL APART THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS SUPPORT DIES AWAY. WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...COULD SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND HAVE KEPT SKY COVER HIGHER.  AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AT 12Z.  VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...THERE ARE AROUND 500-700 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...HODOGRAPHS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE. OUTSIDE
ELEVATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT...BUT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
WHILE CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND A FEW
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND MILD MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY 10 TO 15
MPH...HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SWINGING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION.
NOT BANKING ON ANYTHING THAT WOULD CHANGE PLANS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FOLLOWS THE MONDAY NIGHT WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS DRY AND PRETTY WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL AIM FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
COULD PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER SOME OF THE AREA COULD BECOME
PRETTY WARM. AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COOLER AIR AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AND ALSO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM



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