Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 281753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Backdoor cold front will bring chilly conditions to the region
today.  Temperatures will end up nearly 10 or more degrees cooler
than Tuesday.  Stratus east of Interstate 29 will gradually drift
southeast by mid-day.    Rather breezy winds this morning, will give
way to lighter winds by the mid-late afternoon hours.

A very chilly overnight period is to be expected as surface ridging
moves overhead. Have lowered temperatures a couple degrees, which
could result in upper 30s and patchy frost in some
valley/sheltered areas by Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Tranquil weather looks to continue through the upcoming weekend with
surface high pressure remaining locked in across the area and upper
level ridging aloft. Dry conditions will prevail, and temperatures
are going to sit close to seasonal norms with highs upper 60s to
lower 70s and lows mainly in the 40s through the period.

By the beginning of next week the pattern will begin to shift as a
western CONUS upper level trough nudges eastward on Monday and
Tuesday. This will bring increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances during that time frame, but no drastic changes in
temperatures with only subtly warmer highs - into the lower to mid
70s - with lows in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Westward extent of MVFR ceilings is about reached at midday with
mixing eroding the western edge, keeping mainly east of the TAF
sites. There is potential for additional development and advection
of lower ceilings, likely MVFR, through southwest MN and northwest
IA later tonight, which could impact KSUX and KFSD sites again by
daybreak or a bit after. For now, confidence is not strong enough
to have more than a scattered mention to suggest existence. There
could also be some MVFR visibilities develop in patchy fog around
KHON late night and very early morning.




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