Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 262319
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
619 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A pretty quiet evening around the area with stratus the main
challenge through tomorrow. The ceilings have gradually risen from
IFR to MVFR through the afternoon and this trend will continue into
the evening. After this confidence a little lower as the surface
ridge of high pressure does not move very far east. Suspect that
west of Interstate 29 there will be a better chance for breaks and
higher ceilings while locations along and east of Interstate 29 will
see the more persistent lower ceilings and possibly fog development.
If we can see more substantial clearing towards the James River
Valley then some thicker fog would be possible. Monday will be
milder but will again be fighting stratus. Lowered highs a couple of
degrees in the east based off temperatures trends today and slightly
more confidence that east of Interstate 29 will at least stay broken
on Monday. Latest model soundings do indicate a much thinner stratus
layer so do expect a better potential for solar energy to help boost
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Wet pattern setting up for much of the extended forecast period,
highlighted by another slow moving upper level low plodding across
the central and southern Plains mid to late week.

Tuesday will remain dry through the day, however with the large
upper trough digging across the Four Corners region, mid and high
clouds will begin building back into the region by afternoon. Highs
will be in the 50s.

Rain will spread east across the forecast area Tuesday night, mainly
impacting areas along and south of I-90. Models appear to be in
better agreement with the low track, with the GFS, NAM, ECMWF and
Canadian all bringing the upper low center into the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles Wednesday afternoon, then lifting the low very
slowly east northeast into northern Missouri Thursday afternoon. The
Canadian remains slightly further north and slower than the others,
but the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement. Periods of rain will
persist, mainly south of I-90 on Wednesday, and across northwest
Iowa on Thursday. Temperatures support rainfall being the primary
weather type, but some concern lies in temperatures Wednesday night
dropping near freezing, however precipitation will be tapering off
where the coolest temperatures are expected.

Much greater uncertainty exists headed into the weekend, with models
showing markedly different solutions. Confidence is extremely low on
precipitation chances, so have left low end chances or slight
chances from the blend Saturday and Sunday for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Stratus persists across the area to start the TAF period. However,
the low level moisture is thinning, and ceilings have developed
some holes this afternoon, leading to BKN-occasionally SCT deck.
Anticipate MVFR-locally IFR ceilings and some MVFR visibility in
fog to again dominate through the overnight hours. However, the
thinning moisture layer should allow the stratus to become
scattered through the late morning/afternoon on Monday, with VFR
conditions expected to prevail over most of the area by the end of
this period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH


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