Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

864
FXUS63 KFSD 060823
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
323 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB INCREASING AS HIGH AS THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR
20C BY AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY
MIXY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH SOME OF THE WARMEST
READINGS OF THE YEAR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

BY MID AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SD. MEAGER MOISTURE...WEAK CONVERGENCE...
AND STRONG CAPPING WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ANY CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...COULD SEE SOME WEAKENING
OF THE CAP THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM. WITH THE BOUNDARY SAGGING NEAR THE I90 CORRIDOR LATE
EVENING AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...THE SLIM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE WEATHER. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
MAY CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ON SATURDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
NEBRASKA WITH SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 60S. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF
COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA. WITH INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THROUGH THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING. IT WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW FOR OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL A DECENT CHANCE FOR LLWS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 0Z SATURDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAF.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.