Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 160812
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN PLACE TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND GRADUALLY MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE ABOUT
10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TO THE MID 70S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ALONG WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LIKELY COME AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALBEIT IN A MARGINALLY THIN LAYER. HOWEVER
LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILDER SIDE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT WARMER
THAN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN THE MOISTURE FETCH WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MIXING AND
MODEST HEATING SHOULD BREAK IT UP A BIT AND MORE GENERALIZE THE
CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN.
THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE LIFT...MEAGER MOISTURE...AND SCANT
INSTABILITY HIGHER UP SO WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. IT
WILL STAY OUT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS WARMING SLOWLY PICKS
UP IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN INFLOW
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL KEEP
WHAT COULD BE AN OPTIMISTIC PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY FOR
NOW.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP...AND A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM AND WINDY FRIDAY.
ON THOSE FRIDAY WINDS...SRLY TO SWRLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY
STRONG AND AIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL WARMING.

COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP BRING A DECENT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS..SINCE BY THEN THE MOISTURE INFLOW WILL HAVE TIME
TO WORK AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...AND A FOCUS WILL BE PRESENT. THE
WEEKEND SHOULD THEN BE TURNING DRY AND COOLER...THOUGH HOW LONG
INTO SATURDAY THIS PROCESS TAKES IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS AROUND
DAYBREAK...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



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