Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 122139
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
339 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Still looking at the chance of a little light snow over the western
and northern portions of the CWA tonight, as a weak shortwave tracks
through the region on a southwesterly upper level flow and midlevel
warm air advection overspreads the area. Deep moisture will be
lacking, although there will be some saturation in the dendritic
layer allowing for light snow/flurries to develop. Any accumulations
will be very light - generally only around a couple of tenths. The
low level flow will take on a more southerly component overnight as
surface high pressure over the Mississippi Valley slides eastward.
While this will allow for some warming compared to last night, it
will still be a very cold with lows in the single digits.

The southerly flow becomes even more prominent on Tuesday, and with
decreasing clouds highs will bump up into the mid 20s to lower
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Wednesday still looking like the warm day of the week out ahead of a
surface trough dropping into the region, with highs in the 40s. A
frontal boundary then slides across the area on wednesday night into
Thursday, with models in decent agreement on the system producing a
little light snow on Thursday. This will be the lead in to much
colder air for Thursday and Friday as the upper level flow
transitions to northwesterly and arctic high pressure builds into
the region. Highs both day will run in the 20s.

The cool down will be short lived however, as the upper level
pattern transitions back to a west/southwesterly flow. With that,
highs climb back into the 30s and 40s for next weekend. It looks to
be dry through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Mid level clouds will continue to blanket the area through the
overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period, however this evening ceilings may drop close to MVFR
mainly across south central SD into east central SD and southwest
MN. Light snow will also be possible with these lower ceilings,
but visibility is not expected to drop below MVFR. Winds will be
light.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



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