741
FXUS64 KFWD 021100
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Through Friday Morning/

Much of the ongoing activity will exit our area to the east by
this afternoon. However, this window of quiet weather will be
short-lived as our next round of dry line convection fires off
once again to our west. This activity will also be supported by a
passing shortwave aloft, which will provide more large-scale
ascent. This could very well play out in a similar fashion to
tonight`s activity, with organizing clusters of thunderstorms
pushing in across portions of Central Texas through this evening
into the early morning hours on Friday. That being said, there is
a bit of uncertainty regarding the overall coverage and extent of
these thunderstorms as hi-res guidance has varying model solutions.

Of course the environment will still be supportive of
thunderstorms across portions of North Texas as well, and severe
weather will once again be in the deck. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary concerns, with a low-end tornado threat
as well. Additional waves of heavy rainfall will likely continue
the exacerbate flash flooding concerns across Central Texas as
well, especially in areas that have already seen excessive
rainfall totals upwards of 7 to 8 inches. Regarding this, even
once the rain ends through the morning, flooding concerns will
remain in place, with the Flood Watch currently set through 1 PM
this afternoon. All of that being said, please continue to
monitor the weather over the next 12 to 24 hours as our active
stretch of mid-spring weather continues into the weekend.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /New/ /Issued 149 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024/
/Friday through Wednesday/

Friday through Sunday will remain unsettled with multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The good news
is that the overall severe weather threat will be low. The passage
of an upper trough across the Central Plains Thursday night will
send a weak cold front southward Friday. The front is progged to move
only partially through North Texas before retreating back to the
north Friday afternoon and evening. Lift supplied by the front, in
combination with larger scale lift from the passage of a subtle
shortwave, will result in scattered showers and storms. Our
confidence in the movement of the front is low so we will keep
PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range both Friday and Friday evening.
There should be a brief lull in precipitation overnight Friday
when the initial shortwave passes to the east and front
temporarily moves north of the Red River. The front will return on
Saturday once another shortwave in the northern branch of the jet
stream pushes through the Central Plains. This secondary push
will be stronger than the first, sending the front deeper into the
CWA. Lift along the front will bring another chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday night into Sunday
morning when a shortwave rotates across the region. Once the
shortwave passes to the east, storms will temporarily end but will
return again on Monday with the approach of the dryline from the
west and yet another shortwave. We will keep PoPs on Monday low
for now since a cap of warm air will likely be in place. Once the
early week shortwave moves to the east, the upper pattern will
become more zonal which should limit convection, but with plenty
of low level moisture in place, any subtle disturbance could
produce a shower or storm.

Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be near seasonal normals
with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Southwesterly winds will return to about the western half of the
forecast areas Tuesday and Wednesday pushing afternoon highs into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings and Thunderstorm Potential Tonight.

Quite a messy morning is in store for our TAF sites across the
region. While much of the rain has pushed off to the east,
additional development can be seen on radar. These mostly pose an
issue for the Waco site, but there is a low chance for development
of showers and thunderstorms across the D10 terminals. On top of
this, MVFR ceilings will likely linger through much of the morning
into the early afternoon hours. There is a low chance for IFR
ceilings as well, and will be worth monitoring this morning.

Our attention turns to the potential for additional showers and
thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight hours. Overall
confidence is quite low regarding the exact placement of
thunderstorms, but will opt to include VCTS across the D10
terminals. This will continue to be refined through the day as
confidence hopefully increases for more exact coverage.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  68  81  69  81 /  50  50  30  30  50
Waco                80  68  81  69  81 /  70  50  30  20  40
Paris               77  65  81  66  79 /  80  50  40  20  50
Denton              81  64  81  66  80 /  40  50  30  30  50
McKinney            79  66  81  67  80 /  60  50  40  30  50
Dallas              82  68  83  69  82 /  60  50  30  20  50
Terrell             79  66  81  67  81 /  70  50  40  20  50
Corsicana           81  69  83  69  82 /  80  50  40  20  40
Temple              81  69  81  69  81 /  60  40  30  20  30
Mineral Wells       84  65  82  66  82 /  30  50  30  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135-
142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$