355
FXUS63 KGID 130919
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
419 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit of fog is possible this morning with very temporarily
  visibilities falling below 1 mile through around 9 AM.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east
  today as the responsible area of low pressure slowly
  transitions east southeast into Missouri.

- Temperatures will be seasonably pleasant for at least the next
  7 days, generally fluctuating in the 70s to lower 80s each
  afternoon.

- Off an on chances for thunderstorms exist across the area
  through the period, although most chances are on the lower end
  and severe weather appears unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An area of low pressure can be seen on satellite spinning
across central Kansas this morning...slowly tracking eastward
towards Missouri. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
rotating around this low and across the local area, but they
should shift east through the morning/afternoon hours, with
diminishing coverage and possibly even a little sunshine
returning by afternoon.

For this morning, low stratus has been attempting to develop
across the local area, and as winds drop off, we have
occasionally seen visibilities diminish to around 1/2SM at
times...although this fog has not been persistent of widespread.
Even so, think the potential for additional patchy fog
development exists through the early morning hours, with this
potential rapidly diminishing by around 9 AM. As a result, added
the mention to both the HWO and forecast grids this morning.

Otherwise...expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to
gradually shift southeast through the afternoon
hours...eventually exiting the southeastern most parts of the
area by early evening. Previous runs of the HRRR/RAP brought an
additional area of storms across the central portion of the
area during the early afternoon hours...but models have since
backed off on this and have more of a diminishing trend in pops
through the afternoon hours.

For tonight...mostly clear skies and light winds will allow
temperatures to drop off into the 40s across the entire forecast
area, which is a bit chillier than the past couple of nights,
but still very seasonable for mid-May.

Overall...seasonable conditions are expected through the period
with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms coming with a
weak cold front and upper level wave that should pass across the
area Tuesday night through Wednesday. While pops are fairly high
with this event, this does not appear to be a big soaker, with
overall QPF amounts with this disturbance less than an quarter
of an inch.

Thereafter...the upper level flow becomes mostly zonal and
fairly weak through the remainder of the period with daily weak
disturbances justifying only very small pops across the local
area. Looking at ensemble data, no day looks very promising for
widespread or significant precip over the next week with some
hints of a couple better precip chances coming the following
week in both the GFS/EC data.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Models are indicating the potential for low cloud development
over the next couple of hours, and looking at a couple of
webcams and the latest ob at HDE...some low clouds and br
starting to develop in spots. Held off on LIFR stratus settling
in at KGRI and KEAR for a couple of hours...but once it settles
in...expect it to persist through the early morning hours, with
clouds eventually clearing from west to east and VCSH potential
also diminishing through the mid to late morning hours. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail by midday...with very light
winds overnight increasing out of the north and gusting to
between 15-20KTS aft 13/18Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi