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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
000
FGUS73 KGID 152104
ESFGID
NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019-
KSC147-KSC163-051800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Hastings NE
302 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024
...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This outlook is for the Hastings Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In
South Central Nebraska this outlook includes the
Platte...Loup...Little Blue...and Republican Rivers and their
tributaries. In North Central Kansas...the Solomon River and its
tributaries are included.
...The potential for spring flooding is generally below average to
near average across the majority of the area...
...Short Term Hydrologic Outlook...February 15th - 29th...
The thick river ice we accumulated in January has melted off or
broken up and moved out of the area. We do not expect enough
additional ice accumulation through late winter or early spring to
cause any additional ice jams this season. Therefore, the ice jam
threat has ended for the spring season. There is good confidence
that we will continue to see above normal temperatures through
the end of February. The precipitation outlook is more uncertain,
but with perhaps a little better chance for less precipitation than
normal as we end the month of February. Therefore, no flooding is
currently expected through the end of February.
...Long Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 1st Through May 17th...
The overall potential for spring flooding is below average across
the majority of the area to near average in a few locations along
primarily the Loup River Basin.
Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued from February through
March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based
on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude, stream flow conditions, and the
long range forecast of future precipitation patterns.
There are several primary factors leading to our below average
threat for spring flooding.
- The local snowpack is negligible to non-existent.
- The mountain snowpack in the Platte River Basin is near to below
normal.
- Lake McConaughy is at 62 percent capacity and has plenty of
storage space available.
- Soil moisture is drier than normal in many locations given the
ongoing moderate to severe drought. We do have some locations that
have come out of the drought, but even in these areas soil moisture
is just near normal at best. Consequently, the soil is still
capable of absorbing plenty of moisture thus limiting spring flood
potential.
- Current streamflow on our biggest rivers is averaging near normal
to below normal from the Platte Basin south into Kansas. Farther
north the Loup Basin has a few sites averaging above normal
streamflow for this time of year.
- The March precipitation outlook is trending towards above normal
precipitation, but the longer range outlook of April through June
indicates equal chances with no strong indicators one way or the
other. A wetter than normal March may help our drought situation,
but is unlikely to have much impact on our short term flooding
threat due to the other factors listed above.
It is important to mention that isolated or localized flooding is
still possible even in dry years and when the overall risk of
widespread flooding is low. Isolated heavy spring thunderstorms will
still be capable of producing localized areas of flooding.
For a graphical, more in-depth version of this assessment, please
refer to our PDF report that will be linked at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/hydro/SpringFloodOutlook_2024.pdf
...Climatological Review (Annual 2023 and More Recent Winter 2023-24
Precipitation Analysis)...
Let`s start with a look back with a precipitation recap of the year
2023 across the 30-county NWS Hastings coverage area (24 counties in
central/south central Nebraska and 6 in north central Kansas):
Although as severely dry as 2022 was, 2023 was another overall-drier-
than-normal year across most of our area, with roughly 75 percent of
the area receiving at least slightly below normal precipitation
(counties east of Highway 281 the overall-driest). Of the roughly
one-fourth of the area that received slightly above normal
precipitation, it was almost entirely concentrated within counties
west of Highway 281. Digging a bit deeper into the numbers, the
majority of the area tallied between 20-27 inches of precipitation,
or generally 75-100% of the 30-year normal. Put another way, most
places measured somewhere between 8" below normal annual
precipitation and 1" above normal annual precipitation.
Based on data from dozens of NWS and CoCoRaHS/NeRAIN observers, also
radar-estimated analysis, some places especially within the
following central/eastern local counties fell at least 6" short of
normal for the year: Hall, Hamilton, York, Polk, Fillmore, Thayer,
Mitchell. On the flip side, of the roughly 25% of the area that
received at least slightly above normal precipitation, it was most
heavily concentrated within portions of the following western local
counties: Harlan, Gosper, Valley, Sherman, western Buffalo and
northern Phillips. For our 30-county area as a whole (and there were
certainly exceptions), a few of the overall-driest months versus
normal were: March, April, May and October. In contrast, the overall-
wettest months versus normal were: January, February, June and
December.
Highlighting just a few "quirky"/notable precipitation trends within
our area during 2023:
- 1): Our NWS observer near York (York 3N) totaled merely 6.97"
through the first half of the year (January-June), an incredible
8.40" below normal and marking the driest first half of a year since
1970! However, July then brought an incredible change in fortune,
with 7.31" of rain ranking as the 9th-wettest July on record out of
130 years. Unfortunately, the annual total at York 3N still ended up
8.08" below normal.
- 2): In our extreme southern coverage area, our NWS observer near
Plainville KS (Plainville 4WNW) endured two INCREDIBLY-DRY, two-
month stretches during 2023. First, March+April combined to yield
merely 0.36", marking THE DRIEST March+April on record out of 115
years! Then in the fall, September+October combined for just 0.75"
(the 2nd-driest Sept.+Oct. on record). Fortunately, the other eight
months of the year featured near-to-above normal precipitation, but
Plainville 4WNW still ended up 5.02" below normal for 2023.
As for official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few
of the outright driest in our coverage area during 2023 included:
Grand Island airport (16.52"), Bradshaw (19.30"), Osceola (20.00")
and Polk (20.14"). Meanwhile, a few of the wettest NWS observer
stations featured: Lebanon KS (29.57"), Harlan County Lake (29.43"),
Loup City (28.54") and Lovewell Dam KS (27.85").
-- 2023 Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought
Monitor/USDM):
Not surprisingly given that below normal precipitation prevailed
most of the year in most places, drought of varying intensity was a
big story during 2023. The year opened with 95% of our coverage area
blanketed by anything from Moderate Drought (D1) to Extreme Drought
(D3). Halfway through the year, the June 27th USDM painted a
worsening situation, with your ENTIRE 30-county area covered by
Moderate (D1) to Exceptional Drought (D4), including 42% of the area
in D3+D4 (most heavily concentrated east of Highway 281 in
Nebraska). Fortunately, the latter half of 2023 brought at least
some improvement, as the Dec. 28th USDM only had 62% of our area
under D1-D4, and the coverage of worst-off D3+D4 had slimmed to 28%
(but still most concentrated east of Highway 281 in Nebraska). On a
positive note at year`s end: 16% of the area was actually indicated
to be void of all all drought categories whatsoever (even Abnormally
Dry D0), including large parts of Furnas, Gosper, Phelps, Harlan and
Valley counties.
The first table below features precipitation totals and departures
from normal/percent of normal for the year 2023, with data depicted
for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers
representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary
airport sites. (For full access to official daily/monthly/annual
precipitation totals across our area, please visit our NOWData page:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=gid)
Location Precip Departure Percent of
North Central KS All of 2023 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Beloit 22.52 -6.56 77
Phillipsburg 26.10 +0.47 102
Plainville 4WNW 21.09 -5.02 81
Smith Center 25.23 -0.87 97
Location Precip Departure Percent of
South Central NE All of 2023 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Cambridge 21.84 -1.60 93
Elwood 8S 24.31 +1.03 104
Grand Island Arpt 16.52 -10.09 62
Hastings Airport 20.81 -5.59 79
Hebron 22.79 -8.29 73
Holdrege 25.18 -2.41 91
Kearney Airport 26.95 +1.39 105
Lexington 6SSE 24.45 +1.06 105
Ord 27.35 +1.04 104
Osceola 20.00 -8.79 69
Red Cloud 26.16 +0.70 103
St. Paul 20.70 -6.62 76
York 3N 22.11 -8.08 73
...Winter-to-date precipitation trends (Dec. 1-Feb. 14)...
Now that we`ve examined precipitation trends/totals for the
preceding calendar year of 2023, it`s time to take a closer look at
more recent precipitation trends over the past few months,
specifically what has transpired since the start of "meteorological
winter" back on Dec. 1, 2023 (meteorological winter is defined as
the three calendar months of Dec-Jan-Feb).
As evidenced in the data presented in the table below (and supported
by AHPS precipitation analysis), this winter-so-far has been solidly
wetter-than-normal across our entire coverage area. More
specifically, most of our area has received somewhere between 2.00-
4.00" of precipitation since Dec. 1st (including melted snow). This
equates to most of our area being 110-220 percent of normal for the
winter! Although much of this precipitation fell as snow during
January, quite a bit of it actually fell as rain during December and
in early February. Although not a large/significant difference, the
overall-wettest locations have mainly favored eastern/southern
portions of our area, with the overall-driest locations mainly
concentrated in western/northern counties. Per official NWS
cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the wettest
locations in our area since Dec. 1st include: Plainville KS 4WNW
(5.08"), Smith Center KS (5.00") and Hebron (4.40"). In fact, this
has already been the 2nd-wettest winter on record in Smith Center
and the 3rd-wettest on record at Plainville 4WNW! Meanwhile, a few
of the driest (but still at least slightly above normal) stations
have been: Cambridge (1.51"), Edison (1.96") and Greeley (1.98").
-- Winter-to-date Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S.
Drought Monitor/USDM):
Thanks to the aforementioned above normal precipitation this winter
(and in particular the fact that much of it has fallen as rain and
soaked into the soil efficiently), there has been an unusually-
significant improvement in drought categories across much of our
coverage area since early-December. At the start of December, 64% of
our coverage area was under drought categories ranging from Moderate
(D1) to Exceptional (D4), including 36% of the area in worst-off
D3+D4 (primarily focused east of Highway 281 in Nebraska and also in
parts of north central Kansas). However, the last few months have
only brought gradual improvement, and as of the very latest USDM
issued today (Feb. 15), all Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4)
Drought categories have been removed from our coverage area. That
being said, half of the area remains under Moderate (D1) to Severe
(D2) drought, with D2 dominating most local Nebraska counties
along/east of Highway 281. In the "best news of all" department, 31%
of our coverage area is currently indicated to be void of all
drought categories whatsoever (even Abnormally Dry D0), including
large parts of several counties mainly west of the Highway 281
corridor.
The next table below highlights precipitation totals and departures
from normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter thus far,
covering Dec. 1st - Feb. 14th. Data is shown for just a small
sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various
parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites.
Location Precip Departure Percent of
North Central KS Dec 1-Feb 14 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Beloit 4.00 +1.87 188
Phillipsburg 3.03 +1.18 164
Plainville 4WNW 5.08 +3.08 254
Smith Center 5.00 +3.27 289
Location Precip Departure Percent of
South Central NE Dec 1-Feb 14 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Cambridge 1.51 +0.11 108
Elwood 8S 2.06 +0.70 151
Grand Island Arpt 3.47 +1.65 191
Hastings Airport 3.28 +1.47 181
Hebron 4.40 +2.14 195
Holdrege 2.78 +1.17 173
Kearney Airport 2.51 +1.03 170
Lexington 6SSE 2.07 +0.79 162
Ord 2.86 +1.23 175
Osceola 3.74 +1.60 175
Superior 3.53 +1.40 166
St. Paul 2.32 +0.56 132
York 3N 3.58 +1.27 155
...Weather/Climatological Outlook For The Next Week Through The Next
Three Months...
It`s now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather
conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends
over the next several months:
The next week (through Feb. 22):
According to our latest official 7-day forecast, at least the vast
majority of this week will be dry, with the only decent chance for
light snowfall accumulation (mainly under 1") occurring right away
tonight into Friday AM (Feb. 16th). Temperature-wise, following a
few cooler days with highs only in the 30s/40s through Saturday
(Feb. 17), we will return right back to the prevailing warmer-than-
normal regime that has defined nearly the entire month so far. More
specifically, high temperatures in the 50s (and even some 60s) will
be common Feb. 18th-22nd.
Two weeks out (Feb. 23-29):
Looking out just a bit farther in time, the latest 8-14 day outlook
from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for a high
probability of continued above normal temperatures across our entire
coverage area (60-70% chance), and also calls for near-normal
precipitation.
Meteorological Spring (March-May):
Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April-
May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three-
month outlook (just issued today/Feb. 15th) indicates a slight lean
toward above normal precipitation (primarily driven by expectations
of a somewhat-wet March), along with "Equal chances" for
temperatures to be above normal, below normal or near normal. This
means that there are no clear signals in current longer-range
forecast data to lean toward one of these outcomes over another.
Based on 30-year normals, total March-May precipitation across the
NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges from 7-10", with the
lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest amounts
near the Highway 81 corridor.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (issued by CPC on Feb. 15th and valid
through the end of May):
Going hand in hand with the aforementioned slight lean toward above
normal precipitation this spring, this outlook indicates that those
parts of our coverage area currently under any drought category
(Moderate Drought D1 or worse), will either see some improvement or
perhaps have drought removed altogether.
(The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the
preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast
models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration
ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent
trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More
information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from
the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)...Climatological
Review (Annual 2022 and More Recent Winter 2022-23
Precipitation Analysis)...
Let`s start with a look back at precipitation trends for the year
2022 across the 30-county NWS Hastings coverage area (24 counties in
central/south central Nebraska and 6 in north central Kansas):
2022 was a notably-dry year across our ENTIRE area, with most places
falling short of 30-year normal precipitation by 5-12 inches
(typically receiving no more than 55-80 percent of normal).
For many official long-term NWS stations, 2022 ranked between a Top-
10 and Top-15 driest year on record. For many places, it was the
overall-driest year since AT LEAST 2012 or 2022, but in limited
spots one had to go back much farther to find a drier year (for
example, Hastings Airport had its driest year since 1966!). Based on
data from dozens of NWS/CoCoRaHS/NeRAIN observers and also AHPS
precipitation analysis, the very-driest conditions focused within
primarily northern/western parts of our Nebraska coverage area. The
following counties were particularly dry (greatest coverage of
annual precip under 15"): most of Howard, Merrick, Nance, much of
western Dawson and much of southwestern Furnas. On the better-off,
(but still solidly drier-than-normal) side of things, most (not all)
of our north central KS area along with southeastern parts of our
Nebraska coverage area had the greatest concentration of annual
totals of at least 18-23".
Although the preceding year (2021) was also notably dry the MAJORITY
of the time, 2021 totals were somewhat skewed/"inflated" by a near-
record to record-wettest March. However, 2022 DID NOT have any
particularly wet months (at least on a widespread basis), with most
places during most months averaging somewhere between modestly drier-
than-normal and FAR drier-than-normal (the overall driest months
versus normal were Jan., Feb., Aug. Oct., Nov.). Of all these dry
months, Feb. and Aug. were most noteworthy across the area as a
whole. In Feb., the vast majority of places measured LESS THAN
0.10", matching the driest Feb. on record in places such as Grand
Island and Kearney (among many others). Due in part to this
incredibly-dry February, the entire 2021-22 "meteorological winter"
season (Dec. 2021-Feb. 2022) ranked among the Top-5 driest in many
places (not to mention an incredible lack of snow). During August,
most of our coverage area only picked up between 0.20-1.50" of rain,
also placing many spots in Top-5 driest on record territory.
Of course, even during a very dry year three are usually at least
brief periods/limited zones of decent precipitation. In 2022, these
included: 1) May was fairly wet in roughly the southeast 1/4th of
our coverage area (many places with 5-7")...2) July was decently-wet
across most (not all) of our area, with most places measuring
between 3-6"...3) September was modestly-wet within much of the
southwestern half of our area (many places 2.50-4.50")...4) The year
ended with a somewhat-wet December, especially within the western
half of of our Nebraska coverage area (where totals of 0.70-1.15"
were common).
As for official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few
of the outright driest in our coverage area during 2022 included:
Elwood 8S (12.61"), Greeley (14.33"), Belgrade (14.36") and
Wilsonville (14.46"). Meanwhile, a few of the "wettest" (but still
dry) stations featured: Hubbell (25.78"), Superior (24.41"), Clay
Center (22.46") and Gresham 3W (22.41").
-- 2022 Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought
Monitor): Not surprisingly, our entire coverage area found itself in
a gradually-worsening drought situation as 2022 wore on. The year
kicked off with relatively minimal official drought coverage,
although Abnormally Dry (D0) blanketed the majority of our coverage
area, with limited pockets of Moderate Drought (D1) noted in parts
of north central KS and also parts of mainly Buffalo/Hall counties
in Nebraska. Through the remainder of winter 2021-22 into early
spring, a mix of Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2)
gradually overtook the entire area, with Extreme Drought (D3)
creeping across in various parts of our northern/western Nebraska
coverage area through March and April. While some localized pockets
of heavier rain in May/early-June resulted in a temporary removal of
D3, the majority of our coverage area (but especially the northwest
half) hung firmly onto D1/D2 categories throughout summer. As
prevailing dry conditions persisted through the fall (and
particularly in response to a VERY dry Oct.-Nov.), both D1/D2 again
expanded to include the vast majority of our coverage area, and D3
made another return, particularly within parts of several Nebraska
counties north of Interstate 80. Although December brought some much-
needed above-normal precipitation to especially western parts of our
Nebraska coverage area, the varied mix of D1/D2/D3 officially held
firm across the vast majority of our area through year`s end, with
only portions of three far southeastern local counties
(Mitchell/Jewell KS and Thayer NE) depicted as having "only" D0.
The first table below features precipitation totals and departures
from normal/percent of normal for the year 2022, with data depicted
for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers
representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary
airport sites. (For full access to official daily/monthly/annual
precipitation totals across our area, please visit our NOWData page:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=gid)
Location Precip Departure Percent of
North Central KS All of 2022 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Beloit 18.82 -10.26 65
Phillipsburg 20.35 -5.28 79
Plainville 4WNW 19.62 -6.49 75
Smith Center 18.73 -7.37 72
Location Precip Departure Percent of
South Central NE All of 2022 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Cambridge 16.86 -6.58 72
Franklin 18.26 -8.28 69
Grand Island Arpt 15.20 -11.41 57
Hastings Airport 16.09 -10.31 61
Hebron 19.94 -11.14 64
Holdrege 18.55 -9.04 67
Kearney Airport 17.62 -7.94 69
Lexington 6SSE 15.09 -8.30 65
Ord 14.87 -11.44 57
Osceola 17.18 -11.61 60
Red Cloud 21.13 -4.33 83
St. Paul 15.25 -12.07 56
York 3N 22.09 -8.10 73
...Winter-to-date precipitation trends (Dec. 1-Feb. 8)...
Now that we`ve examined precipitation trends/totals for the preceding
calendar year of 2022, it`s time to take a closer look at more
recent precipitation trends over the past few months, specifically
what has transpired since the start of "meteorological winter" back
on Dec. 1, 2022 (meteorological winter is defined as the three
calendar months of Dec-Jan-Feb).
As evidenced in the data presented in the table below (and supported
by AHPS precipitation analysis), this winter-so-far has featured
some encouraging trends in the wake of a VERY DRY Fall 2022. More
specifically, most of our coverage area has received between 1.50-
2.50" of precipitation since Dec. 1st (including melted snow). This
equates to most of our area having received between 80-175 percent
of normal winter precipitation. However, there are lower/higher
exceptions. On the wetter/snowier side of things, much of the
western half of our Nebraska coverage area has measured at least
2.50-3.00" of much-needed precipitation so far this winter (over
twice normal in some places)! On the flip side, parts of especially
our far southeastern Nebraska coverage area and far southern Kansas
coverage area has only received between 1.15-1.50" of precipitation.
Although these lower totals represent near to slightly-below normal
amounts , fortunately it is still considerably more precipitation
than what had been received at this point LAST winter. Per official
NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the wettest
locations in our area since Dec. 1st include: Arcadia 2W (3.32"),
Ord (3.12") and Holdrege (3.05"). Meanwhile, a few of the driest
(but not overly-dry) stations have been: Bradshaw (1.34"), Shickley
4S (1.47") and Hebron (1.49").
-- Winter-to-date Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S.
Drought Monitor): Despite some encouraging recent trends (most of
our coverage area has received near-to-above-normal precipitation
since Dec. 1st), as is typical of the winter months, drought
categories have not changed extensively (due mainly to winter being
the overall-driest time of year). Officially, the majority of our
coverage area has observed no change in drought categories
whatsoever since Dec. 1st, with most places still assigned a varied
mix of Moderate (D1) to Severe Drought (D2). However, on at least a
limited positive note, above normal Dec-Jan precipitation did prompt
a reduction of Extreme Drought (D3) within parts of several Nebraska
counties mainly west of Highway 281. However, at this time, D3 is
still present in at least portions of the following local counties:
Nance, Merrick, Greeley, Howard, Polk, Hall, Furnas. Meanwhile, on
the best-off side of things, parts of Mitchell, Jewell and Thayer
counties in our far southeast coverage area remain in "only" the
Abnormally Dry (D0) category.
The next table below highlights precipitation totals and departures
from normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter thus far,
covering Dec. 1 - Feb. 8. Data is shown for just a small sampling of
official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our
area, along with a few primary airport sites.
Location Precip Departure Percent of
North Central KS Dec 1-Feb 8 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Beloit 1.57 -0.39 80
Phillipsburg 2.01 +0.36 122
Plainville 4WNW 1.83 +0.02 99
Smith Center 1.72 +0.15 110
Location Precip Departure Percent of
South Central NE Dec 1-Feb 8 from Normal Normal
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
Cambridge 2.79 +1.55 225
Franklin 1.96 +0.34 121
Grand Island Arpt 1.95 +0.29 117
Hastings Airport 1.85 +0.22 113
Hebron 1.49 -0.60 71
Holdrege 3.05 +1.60 210
Kearney Airport 2.54 +1.20 190
Lexington 6SSE 2.81 +1.66 244
Ord 3.12 +1.66 213
Osceola 1.83 -0.13 93
Superior 1.80 -0.15 92
St. Paul 2.62 +1.02 164
York 3N 1.79 -0.35 84
...Weather/Climatological Outlook For The Next Week Through The Next
Three Months...
It`s now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather
conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends
over the next several months:
The next week (through Feb. 16):
According to our latest official 7-day forecast, this next week could
feature a variety of weather conditions. Starting off, confidence is
high in dry weather and above-average temperatures Friday through
Monday (Feb. 10-12), as high temperatures average in the 40s-50s.
However, between Monday night and Thursday (Feb. 16), there will be
two separate low pressure systems that COULD bring precipitation to
at least parts of our area. The first system would mainly affect our
area Monday night into Tuesday, and as it currently stands, would
mainly consist of the potential for a little rain (not snow). The
second system would then potentially impact our area mainly
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Needless to say, there is
CONSIDERABLE uncertainty regarding how much precipitation might fall
from this system, but temperatures do appear cold enough to support
some snow, with high temperatures on Wed-Thurs (Feb. 15-16)
projected to drop back to no warmer than the 30s. For reference, 30-
year normal high temperatures for mid-February are mainly in the
upper 30s-low 40s across most of south central Nebraska/north
central Kansas.
Two weeks out (Feb. 17-23):
Looking out just a bit farther in time, the latest 8-14 day outlook
from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for near-normal
temperatures across our coverage area, and with a slight lean toward
above normal precipitation. That being said, the latest computer
models suggest that at least the early part of this time frame
(particularly Feb. 17-20) would likely favor a mostly dry stretch of
weather.
Meteorological Spring (March-May):
Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April-
May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three-
month outlook (issued Jan. 19) calls for "Equal Chances" for above
versus below normal precipitation and also for above versus below
normal temperatures. This means that there are no clear signals in
current longer-range forecast data to lean toward one of these
outcomes over another. Based on 30-year normals, total March-May
precipitation across the NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges
from 7-10", with the lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183
and highest amounts near the Highway 81 corridor.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (issued by CPC on Jan. 31 and valid
through the end of April): Unfortunately, this outlook indicates
that existing drought conditions are favored to persist across our
coverage area of south central Nebraska/north central Kansas as we
head through late-winter/early-spring. That being said, at least
localized improvements are always possible if a larger-scale storm
system or two happens to produce widespread, beneficial moisture.
(The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the
preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast
models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration
ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent
trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More
information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from
the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
...Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Little Blue River
Deweese 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 10 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Bow Creek
Stockton 9.0 12.0 13.6 : <5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Darr 11.5 12.5 13.0 : 15 18 12 15 11 12
Overton 7.5 12.0 14.0 : 13 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Kearney 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wood River
Gibbon 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 14 20 12 15 11 14
Alda 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 25 36 18 20 12 15
Wood River Divers 19.5 20.5 21.5 : 9 13 5 10 <5 8
:Platte River
Grand Island 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 14 17 11 16 7 11
:South Loup River
Ravenna 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 21 19 7 7 <5 5
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 16.5 18.0 21.0 : <5 14 <5 6 <5 <5
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 9.5 14.0 17.0 : 9 14 <5 5 <5 <5
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Fullerton 9.0 15.0 18.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Loup River
Genoa 10.5 12.0 13.0 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 10 18 5 7 <5 5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese 2.2 3.0 4.3 5.4 7.5 10.0 10.8
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.0 7.2 9.5 9.8
:Bow Creek
Stockton 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 6.2 7.8 8.1
:Platte River
Darr 5.7 6.4 7.2 8.1 10.4 13.7 14.7
Overton 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.8 8.1 10.1
Kearney 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.7 6.1 7.5
:Wood River
Gibbon 4.6 4.6 6.0 8.4 12.6 17.1 17.8
Alda 4.9 4.9 5.5 7.2 10.0 12.8 13.2
Wood River Divers 11.4 11.4 12.4 13.9 15.6 19.0 20.6
:Platte River
Grand Island 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.2 7.2 7.8
:South Loup River
Ravenna 2.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.6 8.6
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 5.5 5.5 7.3 10.7 12.3 15.6 16.1
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 2.3 2.3 3.2 5.1 6.6 8.6 12.5
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 1.3 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.7 5.0 7.1
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 2.9 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.9
:Cedar River
Fullerton 2.0 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.7 6.5 8.9
:Loup River
Genoa 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.2 7.3 8.7 10.2
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 3.4 3.7 5.2 7.5 11.1 15.1 16.9
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Blue River
Deweese 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:North Fork Solomon
Glade 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9
:Bow Creek
Stockton 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9
:Platte River
Darr 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Overton 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Kearney 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
:Wood River
Gibbon 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Alda 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3
Wood River Divers 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7
:Platte River
Grand Island 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
:South Loup River
Ravenna 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5
:Mud Creek
Sweetwater 5.1 5.0 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.0
:South Loup River
Saint Michael 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2
:Middle Loup River
Saint Paul 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1
:North Loup River
Saint Paul 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
:Cedar River
Fullerton 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
:Loup River
Genoa 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
:Beaver Creek
Genoa 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
...Future Outlooks...
The next/updated spring flood outlook will be issued Thursday, Feb.
29th.
&&
Visit our local NWS office website for current weather/hydrological
and climate information for South Central Nebraska and North Central
Kansas at:
https://www.weather.gov/hastings
Additional climate information for the region can be obtained
from the High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu
Additional information on climatological outlooks can be found
from the Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Further information on drought conditions can be obtained at:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
https://www.drought.gov
https://drought.unl.edu
Information on mountain snowpack can be found at:
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-
interactive-map
NWS AHPS precipitation analysis maps can be found at:
https://water.weather.gov/precip
National snow analysis page can be found at:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
Soil Moisture:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring
Reservoir Levels:
www.usbr.gov/gp/hydromet/curres_google.htm
For training on NWS river forecast graphics:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=psIByj8EZY0
$$
Wesely/Pfannkuch
- National Weather Service
- Aberdeen, SD Weather Forecast Office
- 824 391st Ave S.
- Aberdeen, SD 57401-9311
- 605-225-0519
- Page Author: ABR Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-abr.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC