632
FXUS65 KGJT 142356
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
556 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue, with gusty
  outflows, small hail, and downpours possible.

- Temperatures begin to warm up Thursday and beyond, highs will
  trend 5 degrees over climatology into next week.

- Breezy and warm conditions this weekend ahead of another
  approaching front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper level trough working its way across the northern Rockies
with a fetch of upper level moisture in tow has produced widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. The
majority of storms are getting an orographic push, while valleys
remain under broken skies. This surface heating is keeping things
lively deep into the afternoon and will continue into the overnight
hours with the upper level disturbance`s tilted orientation
increasing its residency. While the bulk of forcing works eastward
across  northern Colorado by tomorrow morning, remnant moisture and
persistent cyclonic flow will keep showers and thunderstorms alive
again Wednesday afternoon. Coverage looks to shift south and east,
but enough moisture and orographics will likely see a few north-
facing aspects up north spark a shower or two in the afternoon
Wednesday. Down south on the San Juans and across the Divide look to
remain active with more widespread showers in place Wednesday.
Storms will once again deliver their standard package of gusty
outflows, heavy downpours, and small hail. Cloud cover and more
aggressive north winds Wednesday will see temperatures trend down
slightly. The pinched low trailing behind the upper level trough
will kick out of SOCAL Wednesday night and pull more dry air in
behind it by Thursday morning, putting the wraps on showers as a
heavily tilted ridge noses east over the West Slope.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

High pressure will send temperatures back into the 80`s for our
desert valleys and nearly 70 in the mountains Thursday afternoon. A
few showers will likely get a glimmer of hope along the Continental
Divide during afternoon heating Thursday. These will be short-lived
and probably just result in a few virga downbursts, with gusty winds
and non-wetting rains. The warm and dry trend keeps going Friday as
the transitory ridge pulls away and another trough comes ashore over
the PACNW. Models are hinting at more moisture lifting north and
eastward across the Great Basin ahead of this trough Friday
afternoon. This will probably be enough for a few terrain-based
showers to form again. Late Friday night, the trough drags through
the CWA and kicks off another round of nocturnal showers. The best
moisture seems to favor the central portion of the CWA. For now it
looks like betting on some scattered overnight showers with a few
heavier embedded showers is safe. A transient dirty ridge works
through Saturday, keeping hopes alive for a few more showers taking
advantage of any lingering surface moisture from Friday night.
Models are working with a deepening trough off the SOCAL coast
Saturday night. Ahead of this trough, a frontal boundary lifts into
southwest Colorado and provides another opportunity for some showers
Saturday night and into Sunday as the front lifts northward. This
will likely bring breezy, warm conditions to the region, but ample
moisture looks to keep critical fire weather conditions muted. The
upper trough begins to lift eastward on Monday and Tuesday, likely
keeping unsettled conditions in place. This active pattern is likely
to take some twists and turns as models recalibrate after each wave.
Temperatures look to trend upward this weekend thanks to strong
southwest flow, but clouds and rain are likely to have a muting
effect in some locales. However, no serious cold air advection is
expected to arrive. Spring is certainly showing some signs of giving
up its fight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper level disturbance will sustain showers and
thunderstorms this evening. This activity was fairly widespread
and has a good chance of bringing brief showers to a number of
TAF sites through 02-03Z. Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and
brief downpours will be possible. Colorado, but more isolated
showers can be expected southward. VFR conditions are likely to
persist, though ceilings below ILS breakpoints are possible at
KEGE and KASE this evening. This cycle is expected to repeat
itself Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT