795
FXUS64 KHUN 181929
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
229 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A sfc low has brought a complex of storms through the TN Valley
this afternoon. These storms have remained mostly sub-severe,
however, a few severe-warned storms have emerged amongst climbing
updrafts in response to sufficient instability throughout the
area (2000+ J/kg). Lapse rates around 7.0 C/km have also supported
frequent lightning. The main concern throughout this afternoon
has been hail development, however, only dime to penny sized has
been reported so far. Due to the storms continuing to move slowly,
ponding of water on roads due to runoff may be possible as heavy
rainfall moves over the area. With little shear support, tornadoes
are not forecast at this time.

CAMs support a break in storms for a few hours before additional
redevelopment this evening. With that redevelopment, it will
likely be low- medium chances of showers (30-50%) with a low
chance of producing lightning due to lack of remaining
instability. Showers/storms should be fully out of the area by
midnight. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to drop into the
upper 50s/lower 60s. After storms clear out, cloud cover should
clear out as well in some areas which will allow patchy fog
development and subsequent decreased visibilities. Hazardous road
conditions will be possible overnight into the early morning
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

After this low pressure system continues through the area and into
the Carolinas, upper level ridging begins to influence the area
and high sfc pressure filters in from the OH River Valley. This
will allow dry and warm conditions through the latter half of the
weekend and into the start of the work week, with highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s. With mostly clear skies, there will be little
relief from the sun during the afternoon hours. Our Heat Risk in
portions of the area on Tuesday is `Moderate`. This means our
level of heat may affect most individuals sensitive to heat,
especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Dry and warm conditions will continue into Tuesday, as upper level
ridging amplifies over the area. Highs should approach 90 degrees
in a few places. Lows should only drop into the mid 60s to near
70 Tue night.

A storm system forecast to form over the Rockies and adjacent
High Plains over the weekend will head to the NE, reaching the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front trailing south of it will
move across the area on Wed. Moisture convergence and lift
preceding it will return medium chances (30-50%) of showers and
thunderstorms beginning Tue night. Unsettled weather with
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
into Thursday. Overall storm strength should remain "general" with
a risk of strong outflow wind gusts, heavy downpours, and sudden
and/or frequent lightning. Even with more clouds and rain chances,
high temperatures on Wed/Thu should range in the mid/upper 80s,
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

MVFR conditions should continue to prevail through the afternoon
into the evening hours as storms continue through the TN Valley
from the west, bringing lowered ceilings and periods of lowered
visibilities. Overnight, depending on cloud cover, a low chance of
patchy fog exists. If this is realized, lowered visibilities will
continue to cause MVFR to IFR conditions at both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC