107
FXUS62 KILM 280212
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1012 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north through northeast
tonight. A warming trend will develop into next week as the
center of the high shifts and anchors off the southeast US
coast. A weak cold front will push thru Tue night. A more
powerful one with increasing chances for rain will approach
the area late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Mid and upper level clouds to dominate overnight into Sun, with
occasional onshore movement of stratocu due to favorable low
level winds. But overall, decreasing cloud trend will dominate
the overnight period. Min temp fcst looks aok with various
model MOS guidance a degree or 2 from 1 another, no tweaks
applied. Have adjusted hrly temps based on latest trends and
eventually meshed them with the ongoing overnight fcst. Onshore
winds to veer slightly overnight thru Sun, possibly some
temporary speed influences from the resultant wind, aka sea
breeze, during Sun. Marine winds staying ESE-SE around 10 kt or
less, veering to the SSE-S during Sun as the center of sfc high
drops south to offshore from the Carolinas by late Sun aftn.
Healthy fetch continues to produce an Easterly 7 to 9 sec
period swell that will veer slightly to the ESE-SE during Sun.

For Sunday April 28th, Moderate rip risk for all county beaches
except Brunswick County due to ESE-SE 7 to 9 second period
swell.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 mb ridge axis will remain oriented N-S across the Carolinas
through Sunday. The resulting NW flow along the eastern
seaboard will cause surface high pressure to drop from the New
England states to off the SE NC coast by Sunday evening. The
surface high is producing onshore flow along with enough low-
level convergence to pop a few showers across SE NC and across
the Pee Dee region this afternoon. However weak instability,
shallow moisture and a capping inversion will keep convection
low-topped. Ridging aloft will maintain benign weather through
Sunday, with overnight lows mid/upper 50s and Sunday highs in
the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly quiet short term period with surface high pressure in the
area. Mostly clear skies Sun night with some mid-level clouds
passing overhead towards Mon AM, lows in the low to mid 50s. The
ridge aloft shifts towards the coast through Mon AM as a shortwave
trough approaches, the high dipping offshore. Some afternoon cu
could develop Mon with highs in the low to mid 80s away from the
coast due to the sea breeze. Clear skies with a breeze as the sea
breeze looks to continue inland overnight, lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. The approaching shortwave looks to be accompanied
with a broad area of precip progressing east. Cloud cover
should increase late in the day Tues as this approaches, but
much of the area should still remain dry through the day. Highs
in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low confidence on rainfall amounts associated with the shortwave
passing through Tues night but decided to add low precip chances
due to the decent forcing with the feature. This feature will
move offshore Wed AM with a shortwave ridge building behind the
feature, more surface high pressure approaching. Diurnal
isolated showers/storms remain possible Wed and Thurs afternoon
but better chances will come Fri into Sat due to an approaching
cold front and a possibly stalled surface feature. Highs will
increase into the mid to upper 80s through the latter half of
the week with some cooling possible towards the end of the
period due to the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure centered offshore from the Mid-Atlantic States
tonight, will drop to the offshore waters off the Carolinas
during Sun. This will continue the onshore flow with some slow
veering in the synoptic wind field. The gradient will remain
relaxed with windspeeds overnight 6 kt or less and daytime Sun 5
to 10 kt, possible gusts at the coastal terminals if the
resultant wind, aka sea breeze, is able to gain some momentum.
Cloud decks in the mid and upper levels thru the night into Sun
daybreak. Likely will see a cu field develop during daytime Sun
along with a continued upper level cloud deck. The various
model MOS guidance keeps fog at bay across the terminals tonight
and will continue to adhere to its output.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early
next week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs
each morning. Isolated showers accompanying a CFP possible
Tue night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday: High pressure will drop southeastward from New
England to off the Carolina coast through Sunday. Easterly winds
will veer to the south by late Sunday. Speeds should remain
generally 10-15 kt, although a sea breeze circulation will produce
some 20 kt gusts within a few miles of shore. 3-4 ft seas will
primarily be composed of a ESE swell around 7 sec.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected
through the period with minimal rain chances expected over the
waters, highest chances currently Tues night. S/SW winds 10-15
kts may swing around to the SE late Thursday due to a cold
front. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...LEW/CRM