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000
FXUS61 KILN 230509
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
109 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will develop Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front
moves through region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid and high clouds will move across the region overnight. Winds
will start to pick up late in the overnight hours, however the
calmest winds will be across southeastern and southern portions
of the region and in river valleys. These southern portions of
the forecast area will also be where there is the least cloud
cover. The combination of lighter winds and less clouds will
allow for the potential for some patchy frost. Have a special
weather statement for patchy frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A mid level short wave will drop down across the upper Ohio
Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night, with an associated cold
front moving through our area Tuesday night. Increasing moisture
ahead of this will lead to a developing chance of showers from
the northwest through the day, with widespread showers shifting
southeast across our area later Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday evening. Instability remains marginal at best so will
continue to leave any mention of thunder out of the forecast.
Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 50s northwest to
around 70 degrees in our far southeast. Lows Tuesday night will
be mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 shortwave trough pivots east of the Ohio Valley early on
Wednesday. In its wake, surface high pressure centered around the
Great Lakes region will begin to take hold. Precip expected to have
shifted eastward by sunrise on Wednesday, with dry conditions
expected the remainder of the day. Clouds will gradually erode as
subsidence and dry air advection occurs. Wednesday night, favorable
radiative cooling conditions will allow low temps to plummet back
into the 30s, with perhaps some locations dipping below the freezing
mark. Have continued with a frost mention for the overnight period
across a majority of our CWA.

A warming trend will ensue through the remainder of the work week
and into the weekend as H5 ridging builds in across the eastern
CONUS. While dry conditions will continue on Thursday, the ridge
will shift just far enough east on Friday due to a mid level trough
that positions itself across the western CONUS. The broader synoptic
flow pattern of ridge in the east and trough in the west remains
fairly intact through the weekend. However, a series of shortwave
troughs will eject through this feature near the Central
Plains/Midwest regions. This will provide some of the forcing
necessary to help produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms across
the Ohio Valley, especially given the warm/moist air mass that will
be in place.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions persist through the most of the day as some
upper and mid level clouds build in from the west ahead of a
cold front. VFR clouds give way to lower VFR and possibly MVFR
ceilings around 0000z Wednesday. Rain accompanies the lowered
ceilings after 0000z Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and rainfall could
quickly start to diminish around 0600z Wednesday when the cold
front starts passing through the Ohio Valley.

Southwesterly winds persist around 5-10 knots prior to 1200z.
Southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 knots on Tuesday afternoon
with higher gusts. Southwesterly winds start to veer after 0000z
Wednesday when rain moves into the area.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday. MVFR
conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Campbell