Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
356 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number One for Central
and much of Southern Indiana...
The early spring flood potential outlook covering the months of
March, April, and May for the White, Wabash, and East Fork White
Rivers and their tributaries is slightly below normal. The risk is lower
than last year. A slightly below normal risk means that minor
flooding is expected on the Wabash, lower White, and lower East
Fork White, with isolated moderate flooding possible.
Over the last three months, precipitation across central and
southern portions of the state ranged from around 70 percent to
100 percent of normal, with wetter conditions across northern
Indiana. During much of the fall and winter drought conditions
were in place across the state. While the pattern became more
active and trended to wetter than normal in January, it still has
not been enough yet to completely recover the deficit, and an area
of abnormally dry conditions remain on the drought monitor. The
pattern flipped to more dry again as February started, and
precipitation over the last 14 days was generally from completely
dry in north central parts of central Indiana to around an inch
closer to the Ohio River.
Soil moisture across Indiana is below normal. Snow depth is below
normal as well, with no snow depth across the state. Seven day
average streamflow is currently near normal across northern, western,
and southwestern Indiana and is below normal across eastern parts
of the state.
The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals of
around a quarter inch to half an inch over the northern half or so
of the state, increasing to 0.75 to an inch across southern
Indiana. The 8 to 14 day outlook indicates a lean toward above
normal precipitation with above normal temperatures likely. Any
systems over the next couple of weeks look fast moving and weak,
and therefore little to no new flooding is expected the rest of
this month. Going forward, the 90 day seasonal outlook for March
through May shows a lean toward both above normal precipitation
and above normal temperatures. With somewhat dry soils and normal
to below normal streamflow currently, and just a lean toward above
normal precipitation this spring, the outlook favors slightly
below normal flood risk for central and southern Indiana rivers.
River ice that was fairly widespread across central Indiana from
at least mid January all melted and broke up by the end of
January with warmer temperatures moving back into place. There is
no appreciable river ice in central and southern Indiana, and with
no obvious extended cold spell on the horizon, there is no
anticipated risk of additional ice jam flooding late this winter
through early this spring.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 27 31 11 12 <5 <5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 52 72 14 20 <5 <5
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 17 19 8 9 <5 <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 27 36 <5 <5 <5 <5
Rivervale 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 59 79 <5 13 <5 <5
Bedford 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 44 63 6 17 <5 <5
Seymour 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 84 >95 21 27 <5 <5
Shoals 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 29 38 7 16 <5 5
Williams 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 48 67 9 17 <5 <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 43 65 17 26 <5 <5
:Flatrock River
Columbus 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 37 46 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 17 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 7 23 <5 17 <5 8
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 31 45 <5 9 <5 <5
:Wabash River
Covington 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 85 92 11 20 <5 <5
Hutsonville Legac 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 93 >95 13 20 <5 <5
Lafayette 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 86 93 20 30 <5 <5
Mount Carmel 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 76 88 30 43 <5 <5
Montezuma 14.0 24.0 31.0 : 93 >95 19 24 <5 <5
Riverton 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 92 >95 22 29 <5 <5
Terre Haute 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 89 94 16 20 <5 <5
Vincennes 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 67 82 18 26 <5 <5
:White River
Anderson 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 23 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
Eagle Valley Powe 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 37 55 <5 10 <5 <5
Centerton 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 36 53 <5 10 <5 <5
Elliston 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 92 16 22 <5 <5
Edwardsport 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 86 93 16 21 <5 <5
Hazleton 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 87 93 21 30 <5 6
Indianapolis 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Muncie 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 9 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Noblesville 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 31 42 5 6 <5 <5
Nora 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 32 43 6 8 <5 <5
Newberry 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 64 83 18 33 <5 <5
Petersburg 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 89 93 27 28 5 6
Ravenswood 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 37 51 6 8 <5 <5
Spencer 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 50 86 8 19 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 49 61 7 17 <5 6
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 7.1 8.1 9.4 10.6 13.2 15.1 16.2
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 6.6 8.2 9.1 11.2 12.8 14.4 14.8
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.6 7.3 10.3 11.8
:East Fork White River
Columbus 2.0 2.8 3.6 5.7 9.3 10.8 12.1
Rivervale 14.0 16.9 18.4 20.9 24.8 28.6 29.6
Bedford 12.3 14.9 16.0 19.0 22.9 26.2 27.2
Seymour 9.2 10.9 13.4 15.4 16.7 17.7 18.1
Shoals 7.4 9.1 10.8 14.1 21.0 23.6 26.0
Williams 4.5 5.6 6.4 7.7 10.7 13.3 15.9
:Eel River
Bowling Green 8.9 9.5 11.1 13.5 18.8 21.0 21.2
:Flatrock River
Columbus 6.4 7.0 7.9 9.6 12.4 13.7 14.3
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 5.8 6.3 8.3 11.4 15.3 18.5 20.1
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 6.6 6.9 7.9 9.8 12.3 14.4 15.4
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.9 8.3 10.1 10.8
:Wabash River
Covington 13.9 15.3 17.5 20.0 22.3 24.1 25.0
Hutsonville Legac 15.5 17.0 18.7 20.4 22.4 24.4 24.8
Lafayette 9.3 10.5 12.2 14.6 17.5 19.1 21.6
Mount Carmel 13.8 15.5 19.1 21.3 25.9 27.7 28.7
Montezuma 13.2 15.0 18.6 20.7 23.4 24.9 26.4
Riverton 13.9 15.8 17.5 19.1 21.5 23.7 24.2
Terre Haute 14.9 16.2 19.1 20.9 23.6 25.1 26.2
Vincennes 11.3 13.0 15.3 17.4 20.6 23.4 24.5
:White River
Anderson 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.5 9.8 11.9 14.6
Eagle Valley Powe 598.7 599.2 600.3 601.5 604.4 605.4 606.4
Centerton 6.1 6.8 8.3 9.8 13.6 14.7 15.6
Elliston 16.0 17.0 19.1 21.1 23.8 25.8 26.2
Edwardsport 13.3 14.4 16.5 18.1 20.8 22.9 23.5
Hazleton 12.8 15.3 18.6 19.8 23.5 25.5 26.5
Indianapolis 7.3 8.0 8.4 9.3 11.1 13.7 14.4
Muncie 5.8 6.0 6.8 7.1 7.9 8.8 10.0
Noblesville 7.9 9.0 9.8 11.3 14.8 17.1 19.1
Nora 6.5 7.2 8.0 9.1 11.7 14.8 16.2
Newberry 8.7 9.8 11.9 14.3 17.7 20.6 21.4
Petersburg 12.5 15.9 19.0 20.2 23.7 25.3 26.1
Ravenswood 2.9 3.5 4.2 5.1 6.9 9.0 10.2
Spencer 9.2 9.5 11.9 14.0 17.3 19.7 20.5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 6.6 7.2 8.4 9.9 11.3 13.7 15.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
:East Fork White River
Rivervale 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.9
Bedford 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0
Seymour 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.3
Shoals 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9
Williams 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7
:Eel River
Bowling Green 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
:Flatrock River
Columbus 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3
:Wabash River
Covington 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.1 5.0
Hutsonville Legac 6.9 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.9
Lafayette 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
Mount Carmel 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.2
Montezuma 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.0
Riverton 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2
Terre Haute 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.2
Vincennes 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2
:White River
Anderson 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1
Eagle Valley Powe 594.6 594.6 594.4 594.3 594.3 594.2 594.2
Elliston 6.9 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.2 3.4 3.3
Edwardsport 4.9 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.6 2.4
Hazleton 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.7
Indianapolis 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
Muncie 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1
Noblesville 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
Nora 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0
Newberry 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4
Petersburg 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1
Ravenswood 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Spencer 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued February 29, 2024.
$$
CP