Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 132339
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
739 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather this evening through much of Sunday. Falling
  temperatures lakeside Sunday.

- Unseasonably mild through Wednesday with highs in the 70s.

- Showers and thunderstorms litter the forecast Tuesday through
 Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Tranquil weather this evening through much of Sunday with high
pressure currently centered over the Southeast US. A low is noted
over far southern Manitoba, whose cold front may serve as the focus
for a thunderstorm or two late Sunday afternoon. This will be
preceded by tumbling temperatures Lakeside while those inland bask
in mid-to-uppers 70s warmth all afternoon. The marginal risk of
severe weather has been removed by the SPC this afternoon; a fair
move given sparse coverage and a cap near 850mb. Upper-level forcing
is well removed from the modest cold front such that the cold front
is really the only trigger. If they occur, the thunderstorm risk is
maximized from about 5pm to 8pm EDT.

Rising heights aloft and warm air advection bring temperatures right
back to the 70s on Monday all the way through Wednesday. A surface
low emerges from the Rockies resulting in a notable severe weather
risk for the Central and Southern Plains on Monday. Eventually, this
low and severe weather risk reaches Illinois and western Indiana by
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will come and go through
Thursday night. There with be plenty of wind shear around
through Wednesday while instability varies. Lingering clouds and
showers could limit any severe weather risk for Wednesday.

Cooler on Thursday behind a cold front, but even colder air pushes
in Friday as a shortwave streaks in from the Canadian Rockies.
Temperatures at 850mb next weekend fall toward -8C; brrrr! Frost
will likely be a concern by Friday night and/or Saturday night,
following a rapid accumulation of Growing Degree Days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR Conditions are expected at the TAF sites tonight into
Saturday. Winds will shift from SSW to WNW through tomorrow,
with LLWS overnight (to 50 knots) into the morning, and gusts up
to around 20 knots. Expect dry conditions at both terminals for
now, but some showers and maybe a few storms are possible
southeast of KFWA tomorrow afternoon (after 21z). Left out of
the TAF for now given low confidence and the timing being so
late in the period, however something to be aware of.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...MCD


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