Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS73 KJKL 172159
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for Seminary Branch...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson KY
559 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Well above normal temperatures continue for the
Seminary Branch wildfire through Thursday. Humidity should bottom
out near 30 percent on Thursday afternoon. However, a more potent
low pressure system will track into the OH Valley Thursday
evening and Thursday night, sending a cold front across the area
and bringing much higher chance for showers and thunderstorms. The
front will move east of eastern KY on Friday with rain chances
ending in the afternoon. Rainfall at the wildfire location is
expected to be in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range from Thursday evening
to Friday afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Patchy fog
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........Around 96 percent.
Dewpoint............Around 58.
Max apparent temp...Around 73.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 6 to 13 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph decreasing to 6 to 12
                    mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (90700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2400
                    knot-ft).
LVORI...............1 early, 7 late.
ADI.................99 early, decreasing to 2 to 6.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........37  35  37  38  40  42  40  39  38  40  41  43
Weather cov.....                                PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....                                FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............73  72  70  68  67  66  64  63  62  61  60  60
Dewpoint........57  57  57  57  58  58  58  59  59  59  59  59
RH..............57  59  63  68  73  75  81  87  90  93  96  96
Aparnt tmp (F)..73  72  70  68  67  66  64  63  62  61  60  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..13  12  10  9   9   8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.21  20  16  13  12  10  10  9   8   8   8   7
Ridge wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Ridge wind spd..14  13  12  10  10  9   8   8   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.24  18  12  10  10  10  10  9   8   7   7   6
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   3   4   4   6   6   6   7   7
ADI.............99  16  8   7   7   10  7   4   4   3   5   4
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..91  39  6   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   2
Ventrate Cat....GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........around 31 percent.
Dewpoint............Around 57 decreasing to around 53.
Max apparent temp...Around 82.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest to south 5 to 7 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest to south 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West to southwest 2 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (1900 knot-ft) increasing to fair (45800
                    knot-ft).
LVORI...............8 early, 1 late.
ADI.................2 early peaking at 58 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     27     23     19     17     15
Weather cov.....PATCHY PATCHY
Weather type....FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............60     60     65     73     80     83
Dewpoint........59     59     59     58     56     53
RH..............96     96     81     59     44     36
Aparnt tmp (F)..60     60     65     73     80     82
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   S 7
20 ft wind gust.7      7      8      9      9      10
Ridgetop wind...SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7   S 8
Mix hgt (ft)....500    800    1800   2700   4600   6300
Transport wind..W 5    W 2    SW 3   SW 5   SW 7   SW 8
LVORI...........8      8      4      2      1      1
ADI.............2      3      7      17     38     56
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2      2      4      11     28     44
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2400, then 2 to 3.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........Around 93 percent.
Dewpoint............Around 54 increasing to around 57.
Max apparent temp...Around 82.
Wind (20 ft)........South 5-8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds possible
                    near any thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......South around 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Marginal (32700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............1 to 3.
ADI.................47 early in the evening decreasing to 4 to 8.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........11        6         28        73
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        20        40
LAL.............1         1         2         3
Temp............83        74        68        65
Dewpoint........52        53        54        55
RH..............34        48        61        70
Aparnt tmp (F)..82        74        68        65
20 FT wind......S 7G10    S 7G9     S 7G9     S 7G9
Ridgetop wind...S 8       S 8       S 8       S 8
Mix hgt (ft)....5000      400       500       500
Transport wind..S 8       S 8       S 12      SW 12
LVORI...........1         2         3         3
ADI.............47        4         5         8
Haines index....5         5         5         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33        3         5         5
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........Around 57 percent.
Dewpoint............Around 60 decreasing to around 56 late.
Max apparent temp...Around 72.
Wind (20 ft)........South to west 5 to 8 mph, becoming
                    northwest around 7 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds possible near
                    any thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......South to west 6 to , becoming northwest
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South to west 9 to 13 mph, becoming northwest
                    11 to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor (4000 knot-ft) increasing to poor (18500
                    knot-ft) to poor (23800 knot-ft) late in the
                    morning and in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 to 34.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........75           76           72
Weather cov.....LIKELY       LIKELY       CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE       CHANCE       CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).70           60           30
LAL.............3            3            3
Temp............62           67           72
Dewpoint........58           62           61
RH..............87           84           68
Aparnt tmp (F)..62           67           72
20 FT wind......S 6G8        W 7G13       NW 8G15
Ridgetop wind...S 7          W 8          NW 9
Mix hgt (ft)....500          1800         2200
Transport wind..SW 9         W 13         NW 12
LVORI...........5            4            3
ADI.............6            27           30
Haines index....3            3            3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4            19           22
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...JP
Requested by...Michael Trent
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2411203.2/JKL
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kykic@firenet.gov,eddie.walden@usda.gov
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