506
FXUS63 KLBF 010858
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
358 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is potential for strong to severe storms this evening
  into tonight mainly from Ogallala through Bartlett southward
  with a primary threat of large hail.

- Storms from Curtis through Arnold to Spencer eastward may
  produce excessive rainfall and localized flooding .

- There is potential for another round of strong to severe
  storms Friday evening into Friday night mainly south of
  Highway 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A band of showers stretching across southwestern and central
Nebraska will continue to push northward driven by isentropic
lift and large scale ascent, though deep moisture is lacking so
any precipitation will be light a precipitation will be light
andspotty though this morning. However as we get deeper into
this afternoon, low level moisture will start surging northward
into the region with precipitable water values rising into the
90th percentile by early tonight as low pressure moves out of
Colorado with robust mid level FGEN and deformation in the
northwest quadrant. This will allow showers to continue to bloom
from late this afternoon into this evening and eventually
developing into thunderstorms. While surface based instability
is lacking, steep lapse rates aloft will make for some strong to
severe storms by early tonight across portions of central and
western Nebraska mainly from Ogallala through Bartlett and
southward. The elevated nature of the storms will make a good
amount of the low level shear unavailable to updrafts but expect
some of the deeper cores will be hail producers with potential
for large hail especially heading further to the south of I-80.
Given the lack of steep low level lapser rates and lackluster
DCAPEs, strong gusty winds appear to be a lesser secondary
threat but conditions will have to be monitored closely as a
more dynamic environment capable of supporting better potential
for severe storms will reside not very far off to our south and
east. And given moist antecedent conditions and the increasing
precipitable water values supporting a better than 50% chance
for localized rainfall amounts around one inch from Curtis
through Arnold to Spencer and eastward, will be keeping a close
eye on potential for localized flooding tonight before the
precipitation pushes off to our east before daybreak.

With the upper trof still upstream, there may be enough lingering
moisture and instability to keep some showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder around north of Hwy 2 through early Thursday. Then as the
boundary layer dries and becomes deeply mixed expect winds to become
blustery Thursday afternoon with probabilistic guidance showing
mean values for max gusts 30 to 35mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A strong surge of drier air, will push into the area, behind
the exiting system Wednesday night. This will lead to gusty
westerly winds across the area and an increased threat for fire
weather concerns as dew points fall off into the 20s. Afternoon
highs behind the system will top out around 60 degrees Thursday
afternoon which should keep minimum RH above 20 percent in the
west. On Friday, a shortwave trough will approach the area from
the west. This will lead to an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Looking at
moisture availability across the forecast area, the bulk of the
low level moisture is focused in Kansas into southeastern
Nebraska. This should limit the severe threat in the area,
however, the latest GFS and EC solns do develop some decent
QPF`s across the area Friday night. This precipitation exits the
area Saturday with some gusty northerly winds behind the
exiting system. After dry conditions Saturday into Sunday,
another upper level trough will lift into the central and
northern Rockies early next week. There are some differences
with the strength and track of the next upper level low. The GFS
lifts a low across the central Rockies, taking on a negative
tilt Monday. The EC soln takes a more northern track across the
northern Rockies and northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today across western and
north central Nebraska, with MVFR conditions across southwest
Nebraska this evening.  Bands of mid cloud are observed on satellite
tonight, and are expected to persist at both terminals throughout
the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the
region this evening, but have omitted thunder from TAFs for now
until confidence in timing and location is higher. Winds this
afternoon have potential to be gusty out of the southeast, and
should calm this evening, outside of potential erratic winds with
thunderstorms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie