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000
FXUS64 KLCH 191726
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows zonal flow over the region
along the northern periphery of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. A
weak disturbance is noted over S TX, while the subtropical jet is
approaching NW Mexico ahead of a shortwave trough that will move
into our region over the weekend.

At the surface, a cold front, located from roughly Little Rock to
Longview into central TX, continues to make slow progress
southeast. Ahead of the front, southerly winds were maintaining a
warm and moist advection regime, with abnormally warm temperatures
across the area this morning with readings ranging from the upper
60s to middle 70s. Satellite imagery and observations show
widespread mostly low cloud cover and patchy fog across the area.

Warm and humid conditions will continue today into tonight, while
the trough approaching NW Mexico this morning will bring an
increasing chance for showers and a few storms over the weekend as
it moves east across TX.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances will remain limited today and tonight despite
considerable moisture over the region. The cold front will meander
slowly into the area, gradually stalling tonight into Saturday as
the boundary becomes oriented parallel to flow aloft. Given the
weak perturbations in the flow aloft and the front settling into
the area, a few showers cannot be ruled out. However, forecast
soundings show capping at the base of a dry layer from roughly 850
to 600 MB and this will likely hinder convective development
today. Gradual moistening through the column will take place
tonight but the airmass should remain capped, again keeping shower
chances low (but non-zero).

Temperatures will again be well above climo today and tonight. Highs
today will climb into the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures across
our northern tier of counties and parishes could run a few
degrees cooler tonight (assuming the frontal boundary shifts far
enough south), but will still likely remain between 5 and 10
degrees above normal with lows falling into the lower to middle
60s. Further south, muggy and warm conditions will again prevail
with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Moisture will continue to pool over the region on Saturday as the
southern stream shortwave moves into TX. Increasing lift ahead of
this feature will produce more widespread showers across TX, with
activity spreading into SE TX Saturday afternoon and eastward
across SW LA by Saturday evening. The highest PoPs are expected
across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with showers
and storms tapering off from west to east through Sunday afternoon
as the disturbance moves east of the lower MS Valley.

While a few mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible, the
overall threat for any organized or severe convection appears
minimal. Instead, anomalously high moisture content will be in
place (with PWATS peaking between 1.7 and 1.8 inches), and this
will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall and high rainfall
rates in some of the showers and storms. With this in mind, WPC
continues to outline Tyler and NW Jasper in a SLGT risk (level 2
out of 4) and all but the Acadiana region in a MRGL risk (level 1
out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Saturday night. The focus shifts
toward the Acadiana region by Sunday morning where a MRGL risk
has been outlined on the Day 3 outlook. Given the progressive
nature of the system, rainfall amounts are not expected to be
especially high, with general totals between one half to around
one inch. However, localized higher amounts (and an associated
flash flood threat) will be possible in areas where training
storms develop.

Drier air will begin to filter into the region in the wake of the
disturbance, and high pressure building south will provide enough
"push" to propel the frontal boundary offshore. There is some
uncertainty with respect to daytime temperatures on both Saturday
and Sunday, and this will depend on where the boundary settles on
Saturday and the degree of CAA developing in the wake of the front on
Sunday. A decent temperature gradient will likely setup across the
CWA on Saturday, with highs in the low to middle 70s across the
north and low to middle 80s across the south. NBM temperatures
have trended slightly cooler than the previous forecast,
especially for Sunday and Sunday night. For Sunday, highs will
likely struggle to reach 70 degrees, especially north of the I-10
corridor, with our northern zones likely topping out in the lower
to middle 60s. Meanwhile, overnight lows Sunday night are
expected to be the coolest of the forecast period as temperatures
fall into the middle 40s to around 50.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cold front will be out of our area by Monday, and post-frontal
conditions will be dry and cooler. The pressure gradient behind the
front will be tight, leading to robust CAA with northern winds
approaching 20 mph. The north wind will also advect a dry,
continental airmass overhead, leading to mostly clear skies to start
the week. We will also start the week with high pressure overhead
and ridging that extends down into southern Texas. The high pressure
will be short-lived as the next system will kick it towards the east
coast on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler during this time with
lows in the 50s along the coast and the upper 40s farther inland.

As the high moves east, our winds will veer and become southern,
with strong warming trend and increasing moisture. Temperatures will
return to near or slightly above seasonal averages, with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 70s. Through the rest of the week, a series
of weak short-wave troughs will move north of the region. These will
provide marginal, unstable conditions for rainfall during the week.
However PoPs remain on the low side, below 20% through the end of
the forecast period.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings along with light winds will
continue through the afternoon and into tonight. From midnight
through early tomorrow morning patchy fog is expected to develop
along and south of I-10. Most guidance keeps the I-10 terminals
around 3-5SM through this period however, some guidance does
plummet further especially at LCH and BPT so that will be
something to keep an eye on. At the same time, ceilings are
expected to become IFR to MVFR. Fog will burn off post sunrise
tomorrow and ceilings will become MVFR area-wide through the mid
to late morning hours.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Generally light onshore flow will continue through tonight with
high pressure to the east of the area. A weak front will stall
over the region by Saturday, with winds remaining southeast to
east. Shower activity will increase late Saturday into early
Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area, while the front
moves south across the coastal waters.

Modest to strong offshore winds will develop in the wake of the
front Sunday morning and continue into early Monday before
diminishing. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required during
this timeframe. Winds and seas will diminish through midweek, with
winds veering more southeasterly as surface high pressure shifts
toward the eastern seaboard.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  63  73  50 /  10  10  30  80
LCH  85  69  82  57 /  10  10  10  70
LFT  87  70  84  62 /  10  10  10  70
BPT  86  69  84  59 /  10  10  20  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...17