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000
FXUS64 KLIX 122322
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
622 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Earlier update of ZFP and CWF was only to update to remove this
afternoon`s portion of the forecast. No changes to actual forecast
at this time, but likely to update grids at least once tonight to
handle hourly temperature/dew point trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The surface high downstream of the ridge over the southern Plains
is moving across the area this evening and into tonight. Those
things combined with the extremely dry air behind the front that
passed late last night has kept today quite pleasant and dry.
Expect the surface high to continue to traverse and center over
the area tonight and into tomorrow morning. The high will lead to
very optimal radiational cooling conditions with calm winds and
clear skies, so temps were nudged down overnight tonight. Plus the
drier air will aid in a larger diurnal curve, so that will help
bottom temperatures out tomorrow morning.

The center of the high will continue to traverse eastward
throughout the day on Saturday, transitioning us to onshore flow.
The onshore flow will bring in warmer and more moist air into the
area. At the same time, the shortwave ridge axis will move over
the area. The suppression of the ridge and the warm onshore flow
led temps to be slightly bumped up from NBM, but not much.
Although we will add heat and moisture into the area, it will not
come close to overcoming the suppression of the ridge, let alone
produce clouds, so expect another warm and sunny day tomorrow. As
the ridge and high continues to slide east, warm air advection
starts setting up late Saturday night and into Sunday morning,
because of this, lows were raised Sunday morning.

Sunday will continue of the warmer and more moist trend as onshore
flow continues and warm air advection continues. Due to the added
moisture, we could finally start to see more clouds, but the warm
850-700mb temps will prevent any rain from forming. So, it`ll just
continue to get warmer and slightly more humid going into the
next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Monday through mid-week... Ridging and high pressure will dominate
the upper level pattern for the first 2 days of the workweek, Monday
and Tuesday. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warmer and
moist air into the area, increasing humidities for the area. Looking
at models, rain chances will stay low for these few days.

Zonal flow will dominate Wednesday through the end of the week.
Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air
into the region. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
for the long term forecast, which is in line with  the bulk of the
model guidance. So, major changes were not made from the NBM. A very
weak shortwave impulse will move north of our area, so some rain is
possible for our northwestern areas Wednesday into Thursday, but
chances are low (10-20%). Overall, a generally dry forecast overall
for the long term forecast with warm temperatures expected. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions expected th rough the forecast period. Likely to
see some cirrus on Saturday as moisture moves overtop of the
shortwave ridging over Texas. Winds will also gain a southerly
component on Saturday, but should remain near or below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Expect benign marine conditions as a surface high centers over the
area tonight. That will cause winds to be very light tonight and
into tomorrow morning. As the surface high shifts east, onshore
flow will start across the waters and continue into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  50  82  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  57  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  78  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  47  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...JZ