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000
FXUS66 KLOX 142059
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
159 PM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/158 PM.

Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will persist
through this afternoon across much of the region. Some snow
showers and wintry conditions are expected at higher elevations
through this afternoon as well. Dry and warmer weather can then be
expected starting Monday and continue into next weekend. Marine
layer low clouds and fog should also affect the coast and some
valleys during the night and morning hours starting Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...14/152 PM.

A 554 dam H5 upper level low was just N of SLO County early this
afternoon and is forecast to move SE just N of VTU/L.A. Counties
this afternoon before quickly exiting the region this evening. H5
temps in the -22 to -25 deg C range will move over the area this
afternoon with the upper level low, and along with cyclonic flow
aloft and heating from the strong April sunshine, will destabilize
the atmosphere further, promoting the formation of additional
showers and possible thunderstorms across the region thru the rest
of the day. Any heavier showers and thunderstorms could produce
heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms as well.

This is a more convective pattern than yesterday which means
precip will be more showery with some sunny breaks, but most areas
should at least get some additional precipitation, generally a
half inch or less, but locally higher amounts up to an inch will
be possible, especially where any heavier showers and
thunderstorms occur.

Snow levels should be around 4500 feet this afternoon and could
lower to as low as 3500-4000 feet in heavier showers. Due to
additional snowfall and some gusty winds, the Winter Weather
Advisory for the higher mountain will continue until 5 PM. Please
see the latest Winter Weather Message (LAXWSWLOX) for further
details.

There should be some leftover north slope showers tonight along
with gusty NW winds in these areas. Otherwise, dry and warmer
weather is expected across the forecast area Monday through
Wednesday as upper level ridging slowly builds into the forecast
area.

Mostly clear skies should develop in most areas by Mon afternoon,
altho some marine layer low clouds could affect the VTU/L.A.
County coast later Mon night into Tue morning and again later Tue
night into Wed morning. Low clouds are also expected to move out
of the southern San Joaquin Vly and into interior SLO/SBA Counties
Mon night into Tue morning, with patchy low clouds in some of
these areas Tue night into Wed morning.

Some breezy to gusty NW to N winds are possible across interior
areas and mtns tonight thru Tue night thanks to increasing
northerly pressure gradients.

Temps will turn warmer each day through Wed. Highs for Mon are
expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s from the inland coast
to the lower mtns and deserts, then increase to the 70s to low 80s
for Tue and Wed which is about 4-8 deg above normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...14/153 PM.

The EC and GFS mean ensembles are in generally good agreement
thru the extended period, while the deterministic models are not
in as good agreement especially later in the extended period.
Upper level ridging will weaken and flatten Thu, with weak upper
level troffiness for the most part Fri and Sat followed by weak
upper level ridging into Sun, altho the EC was slightly stronger
showing this.

Skies are expected to be mostly clear Thu thru Sun, altho some hi
clouds could move in Thu for partly cloudy skies at times. There
is also a good chance the marine layer pattern will be in place
with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog
affecting several coastal areas thru Thu then expand along much of
the coast and inland Fri thru Sun.

Temps are expected to be about 4-8 deg above normal for many
inland areas Thu thru Sun, but for the coast and adjacent vlys it
should be turning a few degrees cooler than normal during the
period. High temps for the inland coast, vlys and lower mtns
should reach the 70s to near 80. For the Antelope Vly, highs each
day are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1743Z.

At 1730Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Scattered
showers will continue through early this evening at all sites with
flight categories varying between VFR and IFR levels. Confidence
in timing of flight category changes is low. For tonight, there is
a 30-40% chance of MVFR/IFR flight restrictions at most coastal
and valley sites. For KPRB, there is a 40% chance that VLIFR
conditions will not develop after 11Z.

There is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms for all sites through
this evening.

KLAX...Overall, low confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight
category changes thru this evening is low. For tonight, there is a
30-40% chance of MVFR/IFR conditions developing 08Z-17Z. East
winds are expected to shift to a westerly direction after 20Z.

KBUR...Overall, low confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight
category changes thru this evening is low. For tonight, there is a
30-40% chance of MVFR/IFR conditions developing 08Z-17z.

&&

.MARINE...14/1227 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, high confidence in a
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas.
On Monday afternoon and evening, there is a 20-30% chance of
Gale force winds around Point Conception. For Wednesday through
Friday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening
hours. For Wednesday through Friday, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, there is
a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel...with winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels elsewhere. For Wednesday through Friday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for all the coastal
waters waters today.

&&

.BEACHES...14/1227 PM.

Low-end high surf conditions will continue through early this
evening. Strong rip current activity is likely. On the Central
Coast, surf of 7 and 10 feet with local sets to 12 feet is
expected, highest on west and northwest facing beaches. South of
Point Conception, surf of 5 and 8 feet is expected, highest on
west facing beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this
      afternoon for zones 353-376-377-379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox