495
FXUS64 KLUB 070538
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The upper closed low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains
tonight with 80 to 100 knot 250mb winds and 50 to 70 knot 500mb
westerlies overhead. The Pacific front will be east of the forecast
area by this evening with a weak surface cold front passing south
through the area overnight. Shallow CAA with clear skies and
radiational cooling will bring near normal low temperatures tomorrow
morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow, the nearly stationary
upper low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains. Lee
cyclogenesis will develop across southeast Colorado, but the dryline
will remain well east of the forecast area with continued warm, dry
and breezy conditions. Southwest winds will pick up through the
afternoon hours with the strengthening surface low and increased
pressure gradients across the area. Downsloping winds will give way
to warming temperatures into the 80s and potentially lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Broad upper level troughing will continue over most of the northern
CONUS through the midweek period with flow aloft remaining zonal
over West Texas. In general this will result in a stretch of
relatively quiet weather days during the middle to late week period
given a stubbornly dry airmass remaining in place locally. After one
more warm day on Wednesday, high temperatures will fall a few
degrees below normal as a backdoor cool front passes through the
region early Thursday morning. Surface flow is progged to retain an
easterly upslope component through at least Friday which will allow
relatively cool temperatures to continue, but given the continuing
lack of notable surface or deep-layer moisture no precipitation is
expected through Friday. The upper air pattern becomes a bit more
interesting this weekend as most model solutions depict a cutoff low
developing near the Four Corners and eventually drifting over our
region. Typical model spread exists at this lead time regarding how
quickly the upper low shifts eastward which makes any specific
details regarding precipitation timing or coverage very uncertain.
However, enough ensemble consensus is present to maintain low
mentionable PoPs over most of the forecast area this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Continued VFR with light W winds backing SW and becoming gusty by
midday at all terminals.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93