Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
795
FNUS71 KLWX 022045
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Buck Mtn Unit 6/7 RX...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
445 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge will erode and gradually move offshore
through Saturday. A weak cold front will cross the area late
tonight into Friday before sinking south this weekend. A secondary
cold front and area of low pressure will pass through the area
Sunday into early next week. This will result in increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms along with cooler conditions.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the
northeast 2 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........26 28 30 47 57 32 37 27 27 33 30 26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
Temp............80 79 77 75 72 70 68 66 65 64 62 61
RH..............41 42 48 50 55 59 61 63 63 65 67 72
20 FT wind dir..W NW N NE E SE E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5
Eye lvl wnd dir.W NW N NE E SE E E E E E E
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.4 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3
Transp wind dir.NW NE E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 6
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast up to 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming southeast 5 to 9
mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
around 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (41300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........34 24 42 47 69 84
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 0 0 20 30
Temp............61 62 69 76 80 80
RH..............70 72 63 52 45 47
20 ft wind......E 3 E 3 E 3 E 5 SE 7 SE 9
20 ft wind gust.5 6 5 8 12 13
Eye level wind..E 2 E 2 E 2 E 3 SE 4 SE 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.3 4 3 5 7 8
Transport wind..NE 7 E 7 E 6 SE 7 SE 9 SE 15
Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 3 6 13 29 41
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers
likely through the night. Slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight. Patchy fog early in
the morning.
CWR.................50 percent increasing to 60 percent early in
the evening, then decreasing to 50 percent late
in the evening increasing to 60 percent
overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28400 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........78 82 89 83 77 88
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............50 60 60 50 60 60
Temp............78 72 67 63 61 56
RH..............50 59 65 70 75 86
20 ft wind......SE 9 SE 9 SE 7 SE 6 SE 5 SE 5
20 ft wind gust.15 14 12 10 9 8
Eye level wind..SE 5 SE 5 SE 4 SE 4 SE 3 SE 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.9 8 7 6 5 5
Transport wind..E 16 E 12 SE 12 SE 10 SE 9 SE 8
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28 10 11 11 8 6
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Witt
Requested by...Aaron Strobel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413038.0/LWX
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Aaron.p.strobel@usda.gov,James.Collett@usda.gov