Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
057
FNUS71 KLWX 020726
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Buck Mountain Blocks 6 & 7...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
A backdoor cold front will cross the area Thursday night into Friday
before sinking south this weekend. An additional cold front and area
of low pressure will pass through the area Sunday into early next
week. This will result in increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms along with cooler conditions.
RH values recover into the 65 to 85 percent range this morning before
falling back into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon.
Light west to southwesterly flow is expected today with sunny skies.
Winds remain light through Friday with precipitation chances expected
to increase Friday night.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 5 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 7 mph.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 5AM
Sky (%).........24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0
Temp............57
RH..............69
20 FT wind dir..SW
20 FT wind spd..7
20 FT wind gust.8
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4
Eye lvl wnd gst.5
Transp wind dir.W
Transp wind spd.5
Haines index....3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0
Ventrate Cat....PR
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 4 mph shifting to the
northwest in the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
northwest 6 to 7 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (54100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........20 13 15 17 18 23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............58 63 72 77 80 85
RH..............67 67 53 47 42 33
20 ft wind......SW 6 SW 6 W 7 W 7 W 7 NW 6
20 ft wind gust.8 7 10 10 10 9
Eye level wind..SW 4 SW 4 W 4 W 4 W 4 NW 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 6 6 6 5
Transport wind..W 5 W 5 W 9 W 10 W 8 W 7
Haines index....3 4 5 5 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 0 27 54 48 44
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 4 mph early in the
evening becoming light, then becoming east
around 3 mph late in the evening becoming
light.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
north early in the evening, then becoming light
early in the evening becoming east around 5 mph
late in the evening becoming light.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 5 mph shifting to the northwest
1 to 2 mph late in the evening, then shifting
to the north 2 to 3 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........29 37 40 38 29 22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............80 73 69 66 64 61
RH..............41 55 63 65 65 72
20 ft wind......NW 6 N 3 E 5 E 3 E 3 NE 3
20 ft wind gust.9 6 6 5 6 5
Eye level wind..NW 4 N 2 E 3 E 2 E 2 NE 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 4 4 3 4 3
Transport wind..SW 5 SW 1 NW 1 N 2 N 3 N 2
Haines index....5 5 4 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 0 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east up to 4 mph early in
the morning, then shifting to the southeast up
to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph early in
the morning, then shifting to the southeast 7
to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
6 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (47600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........19 56 66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 10
Temp............60 69 79
RH..............72 61 47
20 FT wind......NE 3G5 E 5G6 SE 8G13
Eye level wind..NE 2G3 E 3G4 SE 5G8
Transport wind..NE 5 E 7 SE 7
Haines index....3 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 9 28
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Stuck
Requested by...Collett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412975.0/LWX
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL james.collett@usda.gov