066
FXUS64 KMAF 190513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

WV imagery shows an weak, upper-level ridge in place over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. This, as well as
maximum insolation, is allowing for afternoon highs well above
normal, perhaps retarded only a bit by increased soil moisture
from rain earlier in the week.

Tonight, the ridge moves east of the area, courtesy of a PacNW
trough digging southeast, putting the area under southwest flow
aloft. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature
will induce a 40+kt LLJ, keeping the boundary layer mixed, and
overnight minimums ~ 6-8F above normal.

Sunday, leeside troughing will increase surface winds across the
area, adding a downslope warming component to the mix, and
increasing thicknesses to provide the first day this spring of
widespread triple-digits outside of the Rio Grande Valley.
Afternoon highs should average ~ 12-14F above normal. This will
result in marginal heat advisory conditions in the Davis
Mountains/Chisos Basin, as well as lower Brewster County.

Sunday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight as another 40+kt
LLJ develops, keeping lows ~ 6-8F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

As upper level thermal ridging continues Monday through
Wednesday, temperatures notably above average continue as well,
with triple digit heat in Midland/Odessa arriving ahead of
schedule compared to the usual start date of May 31. Monday looks
to be the day with the highest heat risk for the entire area.
Strong southerly surface flow will keep lows Monday night nearly
10 degrees above average and mostly in the 60s, with 70s over the
Rio Grande, parts of the Stockton Plateau and into the
southeastern Permian Basin. As a dryline that sharpened over the
weekend continues to set up mostly east of the area, sunny skies
will allow for ample diurnal heating considering the stronger
solar radiation that occurs during this time of year. 850mb
temperatures around 32 to 34 degrees Celsius translate to highs in
the 100s for most Monday after the first 100 degree day for many
on Sunday. Highs 105+ over the Trans Pecos and 110+ are expected
for the Rio Grande, with only higher elevations and places east
and west of the Pecos River in the SE NM plains remaining in the
90s. As a trough moves northeast from the Desert SW and passes to
the north Monday night and Tuesday, the tightening pressure
gradient leading to an increase in westerly downsloping flow
maintains highs well above average ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday. Increased clouds with the approaching trough limit
radiational cooling and keep lows warmer than average and mostly
in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday night and similarly Tuesday night.
With Wednesday`s cold front, highs decrease but remain 5 to 10
degrees above average with widespread upper 80s and 90s, 100s
along the Rio Grande, with lows mainly in the 60s, aside from 50s
in the higher elevations, northern parts of SE NM plains, and 70s
along the Rio Grande. Temperatures again warm into the end of the
week as upper level ridging builds back in following the trough
and cold front passage. Only Thursday presents the chance of rain,
with a short wave moving through providing additional lift east
of the dryline in cooler and more humid air behind the cold front.
However, despite a few storms possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin, we are still not expecting rainfall more than a few
hundredths of an inch for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR continues through the period with southerly winds becoming
southwest by afternoon and gusting to 25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69 102  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63 100  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70 103  74 105 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            67 104  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  90  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  98  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    55  96  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     68 101  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69 100  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     64 104  67  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29