852
ACUS11 KWNS 030115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030114
TXZ000-OKZ000-030245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...Northwest TX into Southwest TX into the TX Hill
Country

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...

Valid 030114Z - 030245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177
continues.

SUMMARY...The environment from northwest Texas into southwest Texas
and the Texas Hill Country remains supportive of supercells capable
of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3" and
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue within Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 177 from northwest TX into southwest TX and the TX Hill
Country. Recent KDYX VAD sampled relatively modest low-level
storm-relative helicity (i.e. 0-1 km SRH of 60 to 75 m2/s2) and weak
low-level shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear less than 15 kt). Even so,
the combination of strongly deviant motion (i.e. southeastward at
around 10 kt), ample low-level vorticity in the vicinity of the
dryline and more localized differential heating boundaries, and
strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE over 75 J/kg) has
supported several different instances of tornadogenesis, both with
the northern pair of supercells near ABI and farther south in
Runnels and Coleman Counties.

Overall environment remains supportive of supercells capable of all
severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3" and tornadoes.
New development is possible along the outflow of ongoing storms as
well as just a bit south of the watch in the TX Hill Country. The
onset of nocturnal stabilization will likely lead to a gradually
diminishing tornado threat over the next two hours, but the hail
threat will persist through the evening. A watch may be needed
farther south if convective trends merit.

..Mosier.. 05/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33550045 34420000 34199897 30919823 29639964 30560070
            33550045