Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 162319
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
719 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

After a beautiful South FL day, a few light showers have begun to
pop up along boundary collisions over the Miami-Dade and Broward
metro areas. These spots should dissipate or move our over the
Atlantic over the next few hours, leading to an otherwise dry and
quiet night weather-wise. Areas over the interior and southwest
could start to see fog developing before sunrise tomorrow,
resulting in reduced visibilities.

Temperatures overnight will drop to the mid 60s over the interior
and lower 70s along the East Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The area remains under the influence of a high-pressure ridge,
limiting rain chances through the short term period. Winds have
shifted more southerly today as this feature pushes eastward into
the Atlantic. With an enhanced southerly component to the flow
today and tomorrow, we will continue to see above average
temperatures across the area. Mid- level ridging will begin to
weaken on Sunday, but overall dry and warm conditions will
continue.

High temperatures today and Sunday are expected to reach the upper
80s to low 90s across inland locations. Around the coast you can
expect temperatures in the mid-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The work week starts with a deep trough digging across the eastern
US and a surface low moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front
associated with the surface low will be slowly moving south across
FL during the day, not fully crossing the peninsula until late
Monday or early Tuesday. Ahead of the front, very warm southerly
flow will become W/SW during the course of the day Monday. Record
temps are possible at MIA/FLL/PBI with afternoon highs around 90.
SCT convection is possible along and ahead of the front Monday
afternoon and evening, but thankfully the severe threat appears low
at this point with the better dynamics remaining well north of the
area.

After the frontal passage, beautiful weather is expected for Tuesday
through at least mid day Thursday with high pressure in control and
temps generally running several degrees below normal. Unsettled
weather returns for the end of the week into at least the first half
of next weekend as a shortwave from the southern plains moves east
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Generally VFR through the period. A few showers remain possible
early this evening, but chances of impacts to the terminals
remains too low to even be mentionable in the TAFs. At East Coast
sites, easterly winds will become light and variable after sunset
tonight, becoming southwesterly early in the morning and then
generally southerly in the afternoon. KAPF could see a reduction
in vis/cigs tonight with fog possibly developing over the interior
and southwest.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Moderate south-southeasterly winds will persist over the Atlantic
through the day. Similarly, the Gulf of Mexico will experience a
consistent, gentle to moderate wind flow from the east to southeast
during this period. Sea conditions in the Atlantic are expected to
stay at 3 feet or lower through the weekend, while the Gulf will see
sea levels at 2 feet or lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  86  74  90 /  10   0   0  20
West Kendall     69  88  71  91 /  10   0   0  20
Opa-Locka        71  89  72  91 /  10  10   0  20
Homestead        71  86  72  90 /  10   0   0  20
Fort Lauderdale  72  86  73  89 /  10  10   0  30
N Ft Lauderdale  72  86  73  90 /  10  10   0  30
Pembroke Pines   71  89  72  91 /  10  10   0  20
West Palm Beach  69  87  70  88 /  10  10   0  40
Boca Raton       71  87  72  90 /  10  10   0  40
Naples           69  83  72  83 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV


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