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000
FXUS62 KMFL 160508
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
108 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A rather strong mid level ridge centered over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico will extend eastward towards South Florida through
the rest of this afternoon and into Tuesday. This will allow for
the dry north to northwesterly wind flow to continue in the mid to
upper levels. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic will keep an easterly wind flow in place during
this time frame. With lower level moisture advection taking place,
humidity levels will continue to increase heading into Tuesday.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 50s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 60s across the east
coast metro areas. High temperatures on Tuesday will rise into
the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the mid
to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The extended period kicks off with residual dry air and surface
high pressure over the region. A warming trend will continue
through the week as the low level boundary moistens and the
persistent ridge of high pressure erodes. A weak surface front
will enter northern Florida during the middle to late portion of
the work week, however given the upper level synoptic forcing
advecting away from the region, it appears that the frontal
boundary will become frontolytic in nature and stall just to the
north of the region. Remaining on the southern side of the diffuse
boundary will allow for warm air advection to continue in
earnest, which will act to facilitate a continuing increase in
temperatures. The gradual warming trend will continue throughout
the work week and into the weekend, with some places reaching
into the lower 90s. Sea breeze boundaries could permit some
potential for showers and possibly thunderstorms to sneak back
into the forecast by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Light easterly winds this morning
pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts late morning through
the afternoon. A brief westerly Gulf breeze is expected at APF
after 20Z. Winds late tonight slack off to 10 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A moderate to fresh easterly wind flow will continue across the
local waters through the middle of the week. These winds will
slowly subside heading towards the end of the week as they veer
and become southeasterly. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
range from 2 to 4 feet through the middle of the week while seas
across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A high risk for rip currents will develop along all Atlantic
Beaches on Tuesday as onshore flow strengthens. The high risk will
continue through at least mid week, before starting to decrease late
in the week as winds become lighter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry airmass will continue across South FL with high pressure in
control. Min RH values in the 30s are expected over interior and
SW FL locations today and again on Tuesday. Despite winds not
meeting critical thresholds, low RH values and persistent dry
weather will result in continued fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  71  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  68  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        83  70  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        81  71  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  71  81  70 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  71  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   83  70  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  69  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       81  70  83  69 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           87  66  87  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CMF