Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 160418
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1218 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Strong ridging will remain over the region to wrap up the week
and into the start of the weekend. At the surface, the large body
of high pressure will continue to slowly drift eastward into the
Atlantic Ocean. This shift will allow for the southeasterly
surface winds to slowly veer and become southerly as we head into
the weekend. With strong subsidence continuing over South
Florida, the dry conditions will remain in place today as well as
Saturday. As the winds become more southerly, a moderating trend
in temperatures will continue heading into the weekend. Highs
today will climb into the lower 80s across the east coast metro
areas and into the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest
Florida. Highs on Saturday could rise a few degrees reaching the
mid 80s across the east coast metro areas and approach 90 across
interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Mid-level ridging begins to break down on Sunday as a deepening
mid-level trough dives down across the eastern seaboard from the
northwest. This feature`s eastward progression will help to drag a
surface front currently stalled out over the Gulf down towards
South Florida on Monday, leading to increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. At this time, best chances for
coverage and intensity appear to stay over the Lake Okeechobee
region, but areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts could see a
few isolated to scattered showers and storms during the time frame
as enhanced low-level moisture and instability coincide. High
temperatures out ahead of the front on Sunday and Monday will be
warm as southerly-southwesterly winds advect moisture-rich air
over the region. High temperatures during the afternoons could
rise into the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas and into
the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Once the front clears the Florida peninsula late Monday night,
high pressure will begin to build in from the southeast US. This
will allow for a drier and cooler air mass to push into the area
on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will generally range
from the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower
80s across the southern areas. Cooler conditions should hang
around through the end of the work week, with high temperatures
on Wednesday and Thursday remaining in the upper 70s across the
east coast metro areas to the lower 80s across interior portions
of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR prevails during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Light winds
will become southerly after 15Z, except for a Gulf breeze over
APF. Some Atlantic terminals may experience brief afternoon periods
of SE flow as the east coast sea breeze moves inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the
Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, a gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will
remain in place during this time frame. Over the weekend, winds
will veer and gradually become more southerly across all local
waters as a frontal boundary stalls out to the north. Seas across
the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less
through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2
feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

As onshore flow continues, there will be a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the remainder
of the day. As winds become more southerly over the weekend, the
rip current risk will gradually diminish during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  86  74  88 /   0  10  10  30
West Kendall     69  87  71  89 /   0   0  10  30
Opa-Locka        71  88  73  90 /   0  10  10  30
Homestead        71  86  72  88 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  72  85  73  88 /   0  10  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  71  86  73  88 /   0  10  10  40
Pembroke Pines   71  88  73  90 /   0  10  10  30
West Palm Beach  70  86  71  87 /   0  10  10  40
Boca Raton       71  87  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
Naples           70  84  72  83 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17


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