Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 141628
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1228 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South
Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an
area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
continue to slowly drift eastward. This will allow for a warm east
to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place through the end of
the week. While this will support mainly dry conditions through
Friday, there will be just enough lower level moisture across the
region to support the possibility of a brief isolated shower along
the breeze. High temperatures this afternoon and Friday will
range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the
mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
The mid level ridge will hold tight across the region throughout
most of the weekend as surface high pressure remains in place
over the western Atlantic. At the same time, a weakening frontal
boundary draped over the Southeast will eventually stall out over
Northern Florida and the Gulf Coast States. The approach of this
frontal boundary will cause the winds to gradually veer and become
more southerly as the weekend progresses. While mainly dry
conditions will remain in place throughout the weekend, an
isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out on Sunday afternoon as
moisture advection increases along the southerly wind flow.
Temperatures across the region will moderate as well as highs will
rise into the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas and
potentially into the lower 90s across interior portions of
Southwest Florida.
Heading into early next week, the mid level ridge will begin to
break down as a deepening mid level trough pushes across the
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, this will allow for the stalled
frontal boundary to begin to move southward again through the
Florida Peninsula. Out ahead of the frontal boundary, winds will
increase out of the south southwest on Monday as the pressure
gradient across South Florida tightens. While the exact details
remain highly uncertain, there will be enough moisture to support
a chance of showers and enough lift and instability with the front
nearby to support a slight chance of thunderstorm development on
Monday and Monday night as the front pushes through. The best
chances for thunderstorm development look to remain over the Lake
Okeechobee region closer to the front. High temperatures on Monday
will remain warm as they rise into the upper 80s to around 90
across most areas.
After the front passes through the region on Monday night, high
pressure will build in from the north bringing a drier air mass
to the region on Tuesday. As winds increase out of the northwest,
cold air advection will take place which will bring temperatures
back to seasonable levels during the day on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast
winds continue at 8-12KT through ~00Z before weakening overnight.
Gulf breeze will allow for SW wind shift near/over KAPF in the
afternoon. Southeast winds will strengthen tomorrow around 15Z
with potential for gusts up to 15KT in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the
Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, a gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will
remain in place during this time frame. Over the weekend, winds
gradually veer to become southerly across all local waters as a
frontal boundary stalls out to the north. Seas across the Atlantic
waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the
weekend. Meanwhile, seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2
feet or less.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
As onshore flow continues, there will be a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the end of the
week. This weekend, the rip current risk will gradually diminish
as the wind flow becomes southerly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 71 81 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 67 83 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 70 84 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 70 82 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 71 81 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 70 81 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 70 84 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 68 81 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 70 82 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 67 85 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC/JS
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...JS