Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 172352
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Low-lvl flow over SFL is gradually veering more SWrly as high
pressure over the western Atlantic loses its influence and a
low/frontal system approaches from the west. However, at present
that front still remains far enough upstream that warm and humid
conditions continue to prevail. High temps this afternoon are
expected to largely run in the upper 80s on the east coast, low
90s in the Interior, with the "coolest" readings likely being
along the Gulf coast where highs will only reach the low to mid
80s due to the SWrly flow. Large scale ascent remains minimal, so
PoPs remain only in the slight chance category with the highest
PoPs focused over PB & Broward counties where isolated activity
may be possible late this afternoon along the nearly-pinned sea
breeze.

The only forecast concern for the overnight period will be the
potential for fog and low stratus over portions of SW Florida, the
Interior, and the Gulf waters. Otherwise, a generally dry and mild
night is expected with lows ranging from the upper 60s to the low
70s.

On Monday the aforementioned front will continue to approach
area, but we will likely reside in the warm prefrontal SWrly
regime through more or less the entire day. Given 850mb temps
around 17C (around the 95th percentile for mid March), SWrly
flow, robust mixing, and limited cloud cover (once any AM stratus
scatters out) some locations near the east coast could see their
first 90 degree high of 2024 tomorrow. The prefrontal trough (and
the cold front itself) have trended slower with today`s runs and
therefore look to phase even less constructively with the weak
mid-lvl wave passing to our north. Consequently lowered PoPs for
Monday, with the best chances remaining over the northern third or
so of the area in the mid-late afternoon timeframe as the
prefrontal trough approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The cold front will fully cross South FL early on Tuesday and then
beautiful weather is expected through Thursday as cool high pressure
builds in from the north. Temperatures will be cooler than normal
through Wednesday and then near normal on Thursday.

Attention then turns to the next system which will cross the
peninsula on Friday into Saturday. There is some timing and location
differences between the global models, but ensemble means show the
potential for some locally heavy rain across the region Friday into
Friday evening. Too early to speculate on any severe threat, but
that will come into better focus later this week once there is
better model consensus. With the expected rain and cloud cover,
afternoon highs will remain on the cool side through at least
Saturday, although overnight lows will be mild in the 60s/70s the
end of the week and into early this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions for East Coast terminal through the
period. Light, variable winds overnight become southwesterly at
10-15 kts tomorrow as a front approaches. MVFR-IFR conditions
will be likely at KAPF tonight due to low stratus and fog that
could develop over the Gulf and southwest Florida coast. Included
mention of this possibility in this set of TAFs, but additional
amendments could be needed through the period if conditions drop
to IFR/LIFR range. KPBI could see some SHRA/TSRA tomorrow
afternoon but chances of impacts at the terminal remain too low to
be mentionable at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Winds will begin to shift to the southwest by Monday ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Monday, particularly for the northern waters and
Lake Okeechobee ahead of the front. As the frontal boundary
passes through the region Monday night into Tuesday, winds will
increase out of the north and seas will increase, particularly
over the Atlantic waters. This will result in hazardous marine
conditions likely developing across the local waters Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The generally low rip current risk over the area beaches will
maintain itself through Monday. The risk may then increase over
the east coast beaches on Tuesday behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  91  66  76 /   0  10  10   0
West Kendall     70  91  64  77 /   0  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        72  92  65  76 /   0  10  10   0
Homestead        72  91  66  77 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  90  66  74 /   0  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  91  65  74 /  10  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   72  92  65  76 /   0  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  70  90  61  71 /  10  20  10   0
Boca Raton       72  91  64  74 /  10  20  10   0
Naples           72  85  61  75 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV


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