843
FXUS62 KMHX 080701
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak
troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist
southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal
system will move through Friday. Drier and more seasonable
temperatures expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored
offshore, weak sfc troughing inland and mid level ridge building
over the SE US. Mid-upper level ridging will grad shift offshore
today, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop over the
Carolinas. Within the flow, an impulse, or two, lifting out of
the Lower MS Valley will move through the SE later today and
tonight, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass to
support an increased risk of clusters of thunderstorms. Locally,
there will also be some potential for convection along the
seabreeze, which may be pinned closer to the coast courtesy of
the westerly low-level flow.

Challenging forecast regarding convective development today and
tonight, and it remains low confidence. This type of setup is a
classic one for MCS development, though with this type of
pattern models can oftentimes struggle with the evolution of
convection as it moves downstream. Diurnal heating of a warm,
moist airmass will support moderate to locally strong
destabilization this afternoon, with MLCAPEs increasing to
2-3,000 J/kg and deep layer shear 25-35 kt. This will support
the potential for organized tstms, with potential for damaging
winds (60+ mph), large hail (>1") and an isolated tornado.
The caveat is that the evolution of upstream convection will
have a significant impact on the airmass, as any early
convection would tend to keep instability lower, and vice-versa.
Eastern NC remains in a Slight risk of svr wx (west of Hwy 17)
and a Marginal risk (east of Hwy 17). Timing wise, it looks like
the greatest svr wx threat will be late this afternoon into
early evening...though depending on the evolution, the threat
could linger later into the evening. 00z CAMs show little
convective development before 20z.

Hot and humid today, with highs climbing to around 90/low 90s
inland, and low to mid 80s for the beaches. Temps combined with
dewpoints in the upper 60s will lead to heat index values
peaking in the mid 90s for much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Convective threat will likely linger through
this evening and possibly through the overnight hours. Initial
seabreeze driven convection will likely weaken will loss of
diurnal heating this evening, with potential for a secondary
round of convection overnight as weakening MCS moves across the
Carolinas. The potential for svr wx will continue, with main
threats still damaging winds, large hail and an iso tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As 330 AM Tue...There have been a few changes in the forecast
since the previous update but the overall trend remains the same
as ENC will remain unsettled into this weekend with a daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms into Friday before
potentially drying out on Sat. Highest risk for severe weather
still looks to be on Thursday. High pressure ridging finally
overspreads ENC early next week.

Thursday...Have made some tweaks to the forecast for Thurs
with the latest data and trends in mind. Upper level zonal flow
begins to overspread ENC on Wed out ahead of a positively tilted
upper trough which will be located in the Upper Midwest to
start the period. Within this zonal flow, guidance has come into
better agreement that a weak mid level disturbance will trek
across the Carolinas and then offshore Wed evening into Thurs
morning.

As Wednesday`s shortwave pushes off the coast, any leftover
shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly weaken Wed night
into Thurs and push offshore. As we get into Thurs, upper level
trough migrates over to the Great Lakes region while a jet
streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift.
At the mid levels a second and stronger mid level shortwave
rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic
Thurs afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low
pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE`wards into the
Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and
a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain Thurs
evening. With ample MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg over ENC in the
afternoon, stronger wind shear 30-40 kts, and slightly stronger
forcing, ENC will once again have another threat for scattered
showers and isolated to widely scattered strong to severe tstms.
Once again the main hazard within the strongest storms will be
damaging winds and hail. Given the higher risk for severe wx on
Thurs ENC is in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather Thurs afternoon and evening. Highs each day get into the
low 90s inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down
into the 60s.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally
pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspread the Mid-Atlantic
on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level
shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. This is where the
biggest change in the forecast has been as at the surface, low
pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE`wards while
its associated cold front finally tracks across the region
slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure develops
along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or
near the coast. The eventual track will have a major impact on
whether the area sees thunder on Fri as a low track just
offshore keeps us on the cool and more stable side while a low
track just inland gives us a threat for additional
thunderstorms on Fri. For now kept thunder in the grids for Fri
afternoon and evening until we get more clarity on the eventual
evolution of the forecast. Either way Friday looks to have the
best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into
next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard
before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes. Will
have one more chance at a frontal passage Sun evening into Mon
before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west.
Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through most of
the TAF period. HREF probs for stratus early this morning, at
less than 10%. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop late in the afternoon, mainly after 20z which may bring
occasional sub-VFR conditions along with the potential to bring
strong wind gusts and hail.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue... Expecting primarily VFR conditions outside
of any shower and tstm activity Thurs with the best shot at
seeing widespread sub-VFR conditions on Fri. VFR conditions then
return on Sat across the CWA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 5-10 kt north of
Hatteras and stronger at 10-20 kt south of Hatteras, with seas
2-4 ft. SW winds will be increasing through the day as the
thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a brief period of SCA
conditions across the waters and Pamlico Sound late this
afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25 kt, and seas building
to 3-5 ft. There will be a risk of showers and thunderstorms,
especially late afternoon through the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 340 AM Tue...Not much change in the forecast overall as
unsettled weather will remain in place into the end of the week
promoting a daily chance at showers and thunderstorms across our
waters each day. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be
possible within any thunderstorm that makes its way into the
area. Otherwise the background winds remain SW`rly at 10-20 kts
on Wed with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times Wed aftn and
evening as the thermal gradient sets up. As we get into
Thursday, gradient tightens out ahead of an approaching cold
front allowing winds to increase closer to 15-25 kts with gusts
in excess of 20-30 kts across our waters. Strongest winds will
be located across our coastal waters and larger sounds likely
necessitating a SCA for Thurs across portions of ENC. As the
front nears and begins to push offshore on Fri winds decrease
closer to 10-15 kts and become more W`rly on Fri before becoming
NW`rly and increasing slightly to 15-20 kts Fri night behind
the frontal passage. NW`rly winds continue through Sat before
winds return to a S`rly direction towards the end of the
weekend. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters on Wed increase to
4-7 ft on Thurs as the winds increase with some 8 ft seas
possible along the Gulf Stream waters. Seas gradually ease over
the weekend as winds ease down to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF