Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
241 FXUS63 KMKX 162028 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 328 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the early evening. Some could be strong to severe with hail and gusty winds as the main threats. A marginal risk (1 out of 5) has been issued for most of southern WI. - Areas of fog are possible tonight, especially east of Madison. Some areas could become dense near the Lake Michigan shoreline. - Summer-like temperatures and mostly dry Fri-Sun. - A wet and unsettled period for Mon-Tue. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 312 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Tonight through Friday night: The rest of this afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity should percolate into the evening as SBCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg remains over the area. Currently, storms have exhibited transient mini-supercellular characteristics, owing to the marginal effective bulk shear around 30 knots, skinny CAPE, and weak 0-3km SRH ~100 m2/s2. This has promoted some brief gusty winds to 40mph and penny to nickel size hail out of some of the stronger storms. Low topped, widely scattered storms should continue into the early evening before SBCAPE dissipates and activity wanes. A humid air mass will remain over the area tonight, especially east of Madison, promoting areas of fog. Areas along Lake Michigan have the best potential to see some dense fog, as the humid air over the cold waters of Lake Michigan, coupled with weak winds, will promote efficient fog production. Tomorrow, relative high pressure and ridging aloft should take root, promoting mostly clear skies, save for some daytime cumulus clouds. Sunshine will allow the fog to mix out shortly after sunrise. Winds will be light and it`ll grow toasty out, with highs near 80 inland from Lake Michigan, and highs in the mid 70s along the lakeshore. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 311 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Saturday through Thursday: Dry weather is likely to persist through the weekend owing to persistent high pressure. Previous rain chances along a cold front Saturday evening look to have lessened, owing to weaker frontal forcing and more unfavorable timing with respect to the arrival of the front. Temperatures should also remain warm with summer like highs in the 80s as height rises and ridging aloft occur through the weekend. No particularly major changes to the pattern beyond Sunday. The pattern looks active, as models depict deeper moisture reaching further north into the Upper Midwest amid continuing warmth and a low amplitude western US trough. This should give us multiple chances at showers and storms into the middle of next week. Tuesday in particular looks like a day of focus for severe weather in our area as CSU-MLP Probabilities and CIPS Analogs depict 15-30% chances for severe weather hazards through Wisconsin. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 301 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Main VFR cloud bases are expected this afternoon. Areas of showers and storms will continue until after sunset, with MVFR cloud bases and brief drops in visibility expected around any storms. Shower and storm activity should taper off this evening and winds should ease. A humid air mass will remain at the surface and over Lake Michigan, promoting areas of fog. Some of which may become dense, especially along Lake Michigan. Clear skies tomorrow should promote the mixing out of fog and improving vis tomorrow morning. VFR conditions and light southerly winds should then persist tomorrow. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 301 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Low pressure will lift north of Lake Superior and dissipate through Friday. It will drag an occluded front over the lake this evening, bringing scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Modestly breezy southerly winds this afternoon will ease and become southwesterly overnight and then light and variable by dawn on Friday. Areas of marine dense fog may develop overnight, then linger into the post dawn hours on Friday before dissipating. Light and variable winds will then persist through Friday as a broad area of high pressure settles over the lake. Light southerly winds will then return Saturday. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee