434
FXUS63 KMPX 020105
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
805 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns Thursday with amounts of at least half an inch
  from south-central MN to western WI.

- The pattern favors warmer and wetter conditions as we head
  into next week with rain chances Saturday and early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Radar returns continued across the region, but most of the
echoes were not hitting the ground. Rain chances will increase
after midnight, and become widespread early Thursday.

One change from the previous forecast was to linger drizzle
into Thursday afternoon as the main area of precipitation lifts
northeast. Forecast soundings show low level moisture indicating
the potential for drizzle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Sun has become more abundant as we`ve progressed through the
afternoon owed to the clearing stratocumulus. Temperatures have
warmed in response with low to mid 60s present across the CWA. Lows
tonight will drop into the 40s as overcast skies move in from
southwest to northeast ahead of our next incoming shortwave. WAA
showers will also develop and push through in the same fashion
Thursday morning lasting thru late Thursday morning in southwest MN
to Thursday afternoon in western WI. NBM QPF totals are rather
impressive with a 50% chance of everywhere (except extreme western
MN) receiving at least 0.50". Highest totals are expected in
southeastern MN and western WI with likelihoods of 50% and 25%
matching to near 1" and over 1.25", respectively. Clearer skies
prevail by Friday, allowing highs to warm into the mid to upper 60s.
Despite breezier southwesterly winds, it will be a great day to end
the work week. However, our weekend won`t have too great of a start
as another shortwave arrives from the west Friday night into
Saturday. This will bring another chance of rain showers, though
guidance suggests rainfall amounts won`t be as significant as
Thursday`s. Perhaps another positive is that forecast soundings hint
that showers could finish up later Saturday afternoon so at least
the evening could be nice for outside activities.

Sunday continues to look like the nicest day of the weekend as upper-
level ridging begins to shift into the Northern Plains. Sunny skies,
light winds, and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s should allow
for a perfect early May day. Following behind this ridge, ensemble
and deterministic models show a powerful, amplified trough arriving
over the western CONUS Sunday. This trough is favored to further dig
and become more negatively-tilted as it moves east across the
Rockies into Monday. Strong, southerly WAA would occur ahead of the
trough, which should amplify the downstream ridge and create very
warm temperatures in our region Monday. Indeed, NBM as of now has
highs well into the 70s area wide. However, precip chances will also
likely grow as the southerly warm conveyor belt will also advect
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will
become more likely across the entire Plains region as Monday
progresses, especially as we get later in the day with more daytime
heating. Timing of the trough`s ejection is currently a little
offset for maximum thunderstorm potential, but the Storm
Prediction Center has already outlined a 15% risk area of
severe weather over the Plains next Monday. Time will tell how
if/how far instability can travel into our region but there is a
good chance of another widespread rainfall event the first half
of next week.

Model solutions diverge greatly afterwards, leading to low
predictability for finer forecast details. However, long-range
ensemble guidance favors us to still be in a more active
precipitation pattern through the first week and a half of May.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 751 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will continue this evening, but rain will move in
overnight from the south. As it does ceilings will lower with
MVFR becoming IFR Thursday morning. Visibility should drop to 2
miles, but could lower even further at times. Fog/drizzle will
develop during the afternoon and linger into the evening. Winds
will be out of the east, with gusts near 20 kts possible. The
winds will decrease toward evening.

KMSP...
Rain chances will increase around 10Z, with widespread rain
continuing for most of the morning. Once the heaviest rain lifts
northeast, periods of drizzle and fog will continue into the
evening, with IFR ceilings.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W at 15G25 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind NW at 10G15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JRB