951
FXUS63 KMPX 011731
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1231 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A break in the rain today before rain returns on Thursday with
  a chance for thunderstorms.

- The pattern favors warmer and wetter as we head into next week
  with rain chances Saturday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today through Friday... Higher pressure moves in behind
Tuesday`s rain keeping today dry. Not much in the way of
advection today with mainly westerly winds, so we should see
temperatures in the 60s. We will see at least periods of sun,
but without Tuesday`s WAA reaching 70 is less likely. On
Thursday an upper wave over the northern US Rockies moves into
the Upper Midwest. This feature is resolved well in the
deterministic models and QPF is widespread amongst all ensemble
members. The spread here amongst membership is less will it
rain and more how much will it rain. Part of this is related to
where convection could form. The challenge for convection is if
we will be able to be enough instability for convective
initiation to occur. The best chance for this will be in
southern Minnesota where it will be warmer. So what are we
looking at QPF wise? With a clear source of forcing and
NAEFS precipitable water values in the 80th to 90th percentile
expect widespread QPF over a quarter inch. Over a half inch
likely, especially along and south of I-94. Some more localized
locations will see totals more around three quarters to an inch
of rain. Some of these higher totals around an inch will depends
on heavier showers or thunderstorms to develop, which is not a
high confidence part of the forecast at this time. Rain moves
out Thursday night into Friday morning with the rain chances
largely staying to the north over northern Minnesota. With
clouds and evaporative cooling Thursday will be the coolest day
of the week with temperatures in 50s.

This weekend into early next week... Temperatures will warm,
especially Sunday into early next week. Saturday could be a
little cooler, but still in the lower 60s with more cloud cover
and a chance of rain as our next wave passes through. Very
average precipitable water values on Saturday, so lower PoP and
if it does rain chances are it won`t be heavy. Ensembles
reflect this with a wide spread just in the occurrence of rain
at all. A much better chance for rain early next week, but while
the chance for rain looks likely there is still considerable
spread as to which day it occurs on in ensemble guidance. Setup
looks good overall with strong forcing and ample moisture for
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Aside from RWF, MKT, and (now) MSP, MVFR stratocumulus has been
slow to clear this morning over the northern half of our
region this morning. Clearing should occur from west to east
during this afternoon, giving away to VFR tonight. However,
showers will move in from southwest to northeast early Thursday
morning, creating dropping cigs during the morning hours. MVFR
to potentially IFR expected with cigs falling to near 1000 feet
and heavier showers creating reduced visibilities. Gusty west-
northwesterly winds this afternoon will slow to 5 knots to
variable this evening before becoming easterly overnight.
Easterly winds will increase to near 10 knots during Wednesday
morning.

KMSP...Gusty west-northwesterly winds slow by this evening with
VFR expected through the overnight. Showers will arrive near 10Z
Thursday with MVFR conditions expected after 13Z. Cigs should
bottom out near or around 1000 feet through Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W at 15G25 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind NW at 10G15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG