Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282025
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FOCI ARE CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE...FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI WITH THE TROUGH PIVOTING OVERHEAD AND JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE SPOTTY ACTIVITY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES AROUND SUNSET...AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE MORE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FILTERING
OVERHEAD...AND THIS TIME THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX TO MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING.
MEANWHILE...WE WILL STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
COMING INTO PLAY. THESE FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PROVIDE NEARLY
30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE DEWPOINTS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MUSTER FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY HOWEVER...SO
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF THE MORE
DEVELOPED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN/SERN MN. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE EVENING
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS BUT STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 400-500 FT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF FORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE THREATENING TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH SO
NOW ANTICIPATING DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SEEMINGLY PERMANENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH IT SO KEPT LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BUT INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS DRY.

THE NORTHWEST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
WARMER TEMPS SHOULD SLIDE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ANY REAL
HEAT WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE PLAINS. FORCING ON THE
FRONT SHOULD DICTATE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEXT SUNDAY WITH POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE SECONDARY BEING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

THE CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED /MID 70S/. AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT KAXN AND KRWF
WHICH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH WEST. ATTENDANT MVFR VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 3KFT-4KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN CIGS AS LOW AS 2.5KFT WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH FOG BECOMING A CONCERN. WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION AT WI SITES
WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AND AN OVERALL BETTER FOG
SCENARIO EXISTS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

KMSP...
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BLOSSOM
BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z...PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY. COULD SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THIS AFTERNOON PANS OUT BEFORE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS



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