Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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243
FXUS63 KMPX 271104
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF RAIN BAND OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TONIGHT.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING
AS THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
RAIN AS RATHER DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE TRIED TO
TIME WITH THE 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST...WHICH LEAVE LEAVES THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA DRY TODAY. WE STILL SHOULD WORK THE RAIN NEAR A MORRIS-
MSP-RED WING LINE BY 6 PM. WE STILL HAVE A LARGE MASS OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING SEVER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS MAY THIN A BIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THICKER/LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RISE TO THE MID 50S OVER THE FAR EAST BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN AFFECT THAT AREA.

THE RAIN AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.  SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AS THE DRY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WE
WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO OUR FAR NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. CONCERNING P-TYPE...SOME HIRES CAMS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE
OVER TO SNOW OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR
WORKING INTO THIS REGION AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES SHOW IT COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  WE WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET AND COOL...BUT TRENDS WARMER AND
DRYER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH
OF MN/WI. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIX IN
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY
RIDGING PREVAILING. WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUD COVER
LINGERING...BUT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WEEKEND TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BY
SATURDAY...LARGELY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY LOW WILL LIFT. FOR NOW...HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.

NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. BY TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WILL BRING IN THE RAIN TO NEAR A KMOX-KMSP LINE BY 00Z FRI. THEN
SLOWLY NE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING.
WILL TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE -RA AS WELL. COULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. EAST WINDS AND GUSTY INTO THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NE INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...

SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. THEN MVFR CIGS -RA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD END BY 15Z FRI WITH IMPROVING CIGS THERAFTER. EAST
WIND GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NITE...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



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