Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 220543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1243 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

One more day of dry conditions are expected as the upper level
pattern begins to change next week. Based on a stronger
southerly flow and abundant sunshine, especially in eastern
Minnesota Sunday, temperatures will rise into the 80s. Depending
upon how much mixing takes place across western Minnesota and the
amount of cloud cover in the afternoon, temperatures in this area
may rise into the mid/upper 80s. Boundary layer moisture will
finally begin to increase in the western quarter of the state
Sunday. Dew points will likely increase into the low to mid 50s
ahead of a storm system moving across the Northern Plains. Based
on several of the CAMS expect the precipitation to hold off until
after sunset in western Minnesota Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

An omega block across North America on Sunday will break down
early next week as the eastern low shears northeast. This low
will be replaced with a massive ridge building across the eastern
United States and western Atlantic, placing the FA in a southwest
flow aloft. The western low/trough will pretty much remain in
place with pieces of energy emanating from this feature and
heading northeast across the Upper Mississippi Valley.

The pattern that unfolds next week will be one where precipitation
is possible nearly every day of the long term. However, there
are three main periods for showers and thunderstorms. The first is
Monday and Monday night, the second being Wednesday into Thursday
with the last being Friday into Saturday. The
moisture/precipitation surges seen in the ECMWF are Wednesday and
Friday while the GFS is Thursday and Saturday. Hence, there are
some timing differences between the two deterministic solutions
down the road.

Temperatures will average above normal next week. Highs and lows
will be some 10 degrees above normal from Monday through
Wednesday and then at least 5 degrees above normal Thursday
through Saturday. Rainfall amounts next week will likely total in
the 1 to 2 inch range with local amounts around three inches where
repetitive rounds of convection occur.

A period of concern is Monday and Monday night. Various CAMS
indicate that there will be a dying line of convection entering
western MN early Monday morning while another line of showers and
thunderstorms develops near the Twin Cities around daybreak
Monday and pushes into western WI before diminishing. This latter
activity is associated with low level moisture transport and
developing instability. None of this activity is expected to be
severe as the right entrance region of the upper level jet over
the Dakotas Sunday evening is in a weakening mode and lifting

Monday afternoon and Monday evening may be a different
story due to a combination of daytime heating, left over
boundaries from earlier convection, as well as a short wave
moving in from the central plains. Shear values are adequate by
late in the afternoon to the west and north of the Twin Cities
with a NE-SW broken line of storms expected to develop. The
storms would then pass across the Twin Cities and western WI
during the early evening hours with a few strong to severe storms


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR and no aviation concerns through tonight. Sunday morning will
see increasing south-southeast winds along with gusts of 20-24 kts
in western Minnesota.

KMSP...No additional concerns with increasing south-southeast
winds of 12-14 kts, gusting to near 20 kts, by the end of the TAF

MON...Mainly VFR. TSRA likely with MVFR possible. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 5 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind light and variable.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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