Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 270004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR DULUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN WI...JUST EAST OF THE MN
BORDER.  TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THIS CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS GO NEARLY CALM. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE SATURATED AT 925MB BUT CAN
EASILY IMPACTED BY SURFACE MOISTURE.  AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
AFTER DARK AND COULD LOCK ANY LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN.

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE MID 20S WITH -FZDZ AND -SN BEING REPORTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  VERY LIGHT AND SCATTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE EAST GIVEN
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FACT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHILE THE COOLDOWN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND MORE NOTABLY THE NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THE POWERFUL NOREASTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES BRINGING
REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.

THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
NOTE...WEDNEDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...SO DID NOT WARM TEMPS SINCE MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM WARMING OUT OF CONTROL DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIMITING TEMPS TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY...AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM...BUT NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND TO ECHO THE THOUGHTS
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ONCE IT ARRIVES...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP IN MINNESOTA
AND WHAT FALLS IN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. WE DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
KEAU OR KRNH IN THE 00Z TAF...A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL THE WI SITES WILL JUST HAVE THE LOW
CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH. SITES CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
3000-4000FT EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD EXPECT A LOWERING WITH TIME.

KMSP...
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 2000FT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...BUT WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
CEILINGS MUCH LOWER THAN THAT...SAY LOWER THAN 1700FT. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THOUGH. KMSP SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.