Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 170954
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS LED TO SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES HAVE
FALLEN PERIODICALLY TO 2 TO 5 MILES AT OBSERVING LOCATIONS...BUT
TYPICALLY THIS IS QUITE OPTIMISTIC AND UNREPRESENTATIVE OF OPEN
AREAS. THE WIND WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TODAY AS MIXING
DEEPENS...AND SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
IS WITH PATCHIER BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.

SPEAKING OF PATCHY...CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PATCHY AT BEST.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW
BEING CONFINED TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE UPPER LOW
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE MORE EAST THAN SOUTH...SO
THIS CWA SHOULD BYPASS A LOT OF THE SNOW /CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
HOWEVER/. GIVEN THAT THE DGZ EXTENDS TO THE GROUND...AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...BEST CHANCES ACROSS WRN WI WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. WHILE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THE TRACK OF THE HIGH IS NOT ALL
THAT FAVORABLE FOR WIND DECOUPLING AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES.
SINCE HIGHS TODAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOW OR MID
TEENS...IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO DROP BELOW ZERO THOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE COLD REGIME FOUND ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK CLIPPER/COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THEN SOME MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A COLD AND TRANQUIL DAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXITING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TI BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIDING IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE WAA REGIME MOVES EAST. QG THALER
INDICATING DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH ANY
QPF WILL BE LIGHT. STILL COULD SEE AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW...ESPECIALLY
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WINDS
FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO WESTERN MN
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ADDED SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER THE AREA AS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

ANOTHER COLD DAY EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS AGAIN...AND WE SHOULD SEE LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING MOSTLY AT OR BELOW ZERO.

THE LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL BEING FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BREAK DOWN OF
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND THE HUDSON BAY LOW LIFTING NORTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME PACIFIC AIR TO RIDE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMER AIRS ARRIVAL...
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SATURDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEAST...HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH AND EAST. THIS MAY ALSO BRING THE
THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND  AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING. VFR/MVFR CLOUDS
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THINK THE
MAJORITY OF TIME WILL BE SPENT VFR...SO WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
WITH SCT MVFR CIG MENTION AND BKN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS WRN MN...WITH MANY OBS REPORTING 4-6SM HZ/BLSN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS UNTIL WINDS EASE MONDAY
EVENING.

KMSP...VFR LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT CANNOT PINPOINT THE BEST
TIMES. DECIDED TO PLAY IT OPTIMISTIC UNTIL CLEARER TRENDS PRESENT
THEMSELVES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 12 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-
     047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






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