Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 240327
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1027 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

REMNANTS OF THE POWERFUL CYCLONE WERE EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP OVERLAID WITH SURFACE OBS...WHICH SHOWED A BEAUTIFUL
COMMA-HEAD CLOUD SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...WITH
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SURFACE WINDS. LOW STRATUS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI...WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN. AFTERNOON
GUSTS TOUCHED 30KTS AT A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT REMAINED BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DIURNAL MIXING DISSIPATES...BUT
THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM...SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY GUSTS WILL RETURN AFTER THE
MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT...BUT VALUES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5KTS LESS
THAN TODAY. CLEAR SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN MONDAYS HIGHS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THEREAFTER ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MAIN THREE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE GFS HAS
REMAINED STREADFAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON PASSING THE
SHORT WAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MIGRATED
THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.
THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE RELATED ON HOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS BEING HANDLED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IS ON FRIDAY WITH
LESSER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CEILINGS WITH LINGERING STRATO-CUMULUS DECK TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY W-NW WINDS CONTINUING. LITTLE TO NO AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. THERE ARE 2000-3000FT
CLOUD BASES THAT MAY TRY TO WORK DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI IN THE MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
KRNH AND KEAU ARE THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE
LOWER CLOUDS.

KMSP...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME 2000-3000FT CLOUDS WILL APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL MN IN THE MORNING...BUT WE THINK MOST OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
HANG JUST NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KMSP IN THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. WIND W/SW 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND S AT 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF


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