Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 240043
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN
RIVER VALLEY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE
TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD
SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION. DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

-RA PUSHING THRU THE REGION AT INITIALIZATION IS MAINLY AFFECTING
KMSP-KRNH-KEAU...AND ONLY FOR THE FIRST 1-2 HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEN THERE LOOKS TO BE A BONA FIDE BREAK FOR SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z-08Z ACRS THE COVERAGE AREA...ESPECIALLY
FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN. ERN MN INTO WRN WI LOOK TO HAVE A MUCH SHORTER
WINDOW FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. THE SECOND ROUND THAT COMES IN
ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE MOD-HVY BANDS WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...LIKELY
PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR CONDS WITHIN PREVAILING MVFR. PRECIP THEN
LOOKS TO LINGER THRU MIDDAY THU BEFORE EXITING LATE DAY THU. ALL
SITES INITIALIZE AS VFR THEN DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND LINGER AS
SUCH THRU MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE OCNL IFR CIGS. AS FOR VSBY...
PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT CHCS ARE NOT GREAT. FOR WINDS...SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE TMRW MRNG. AS THE LOW PRES CENTER SLIDES
ACRS SRN MN TMRW AFTN...WINDS WILL SPIN AROUND THE COMPASS AND
EVENTUALLY LAND ON NW WINDS BY LATE AFTN. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT BY LATE TMRW MRNG AND REMAIN THERE WITH THE WIND SHIFT
BEFORE INCRG BACK TO NEAR 10 KT LATE.

KMSP...VFR AT INITIALIZATION THEN CIGS DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY THU
MRNG AND WILL REMAIN AS MVFR THRU THE DAY TMRW. CIGS LIKELY TO
DROP TO SUB-1700 FT ARND DAYBREAK...LASTING THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING. HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIP LOOK TO DEVELOP ARND
DAYBREAK...WITH MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY AFFECTING THE MRNG
PUSH. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT BCMG N.
SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC






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