Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 252334
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow will continue through Tuesday with additional
  snowfall accumulations up to 4" across west central and
  central Minnesota. Snow amounts taper off quickly to the south
  and east.

- Much cooler air returns Tuesday through Wednesday night, which
  could lead to a flash freeze scenario after a couple days of
  liquid precipitation.

- Temperatures warm back into the 40s and 50s for highs with
  lows still flirting with freezing through the remainder of the
  week with only low chances for precip through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Widespread precipitation continues to fall across the southern half
of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The warm air nose has progressed
up to the area extending from Sherburne county in Minnesota to
Barron county in Wisconsin. This will continue to push further
northeast throughout the day. Much of western Minnesota is still
seeing light snow or a rain/snow mix, with some areas expected to
receive up to an additional 4 inches.

TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE: This will be our next area of concern as
the cold air sector pushes eastward into eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. There will be roughly a 1-2 hour window of
sleet/freezing rain as areas transition from rain to snow. HREF and
model soundings all point towards sleet being favored over freezing
rain. The warm air aloft will be cooling at the same time as the
surface, limiting any prolonged melting aloft. That said, surface
temperatures will quickly decrease from the mid 30s to mid 20s
during this transition period. Any exposed surfaces will be at risk
of freezing, especially bridges and overpasses. To help message this
threat, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for a strip of
counties extending from Martin and Faribault counties up through
east-central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro. A quick 1-2
inches of additional snow is possible on the backside of this system
as the surface low looks to strengthen while pushing northeast. An
area of FGEN will also help reinforce stronger snowfall rates around
0.5"/hour. Light snow will linger through the evening as the system
makes its exit into Canada.

Going into Wednesday, surface high pressure will build in with
temperatures staying in the teens for lows and low 30s for highs.
Skies will be mostly sunny however, which could lead to periods of
melting during the day and refreeze at night. Warm air advection
will help usher in more seasonable late March temperatures by the
end of the week. There will be a few quick waves that move through
the Upper Midwest this weekend that look to bring a shot at light
precip. Chances for this are low and not particularly impressive. It
will likely be cloudy for a prolonged period after the warm air
moves in though.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Varied conditions over the next few hours with the full range of
visibility possible from P6SM down to 1/4SM. The lowest
visibility only really has a chance at AXN. Low ceilings will
keep us in IFR through most of the period though. This relative
quiet period will come to an end between 03Z and 06Z when the
next round of precipitation arrives. The first few hours will
be varied based on location, check individual TAFs for more
information. In general there will be a transition period with a
mix before snow becomes the sole precipitation type again. Snow
will continue until Wed morning for western MN and evening for
western WI. This last part of the storm will have one big
difference from the rest of it, wind. Winds will be much higher
with sustained around 20 and gusts around 30 knots.

KMSP... Continued IFR due to ceilings through Tuesday morning.
Rain will return tonight before changing to a mix on Tuesday
morning and a few hours later snow before it ends by the
afternoon. Winds will pick up in the morning and continue
through the period with gusts up near 20 knots and gusts of 25
to 30 knots. Winds should generally be from the north or
northwest, so no issue expected for the parallels.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Winds W 15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Winds W bcmg E 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR with MVFR -RASN possible. Wind SE 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Chippewa-
     Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd-
     Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for Benton-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Mille Lacs-Redwood-Renville-Stearns.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     Brown-Isanti-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Sherburne-
     Sibley-Watonwan-Wright.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     Anoka-Blue Earth-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Hennepin-
     Le Sueur-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     Polk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC


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