Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 140835
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

SFC ANALYSIS THIS MRNG SHOWS A CDFNT WELL TO THE
S AND E OF THE WFO MPX CWFA WHILE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
DEEP ROTATING UPR LVL LOW DROPPING INTO NRN MN FROM ERN MANITOBA.
THIS DEEP COLD UPR LVL LOW WILL DRIVE SEWD ITO THE GRT LKS THRU THE
DAY TDA. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL MIDLVL SHORT TROF AXES
ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPR LOW...A WEAK SFC TROF...AND A
DEEPER MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TDA. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN TERMS OF CONVECTION/THUNDER DUE TO MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AND LACK OF INSOLATION. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN OF POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL IN THE STRONGER
SHOWERS...ESP IN WRN WI WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR
LOW. THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU THIS EVENING BUT CHCS
WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN THIS EVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE UPR LOW
SHIFTS AWAY TO THE E AND HIGH PRES MOVES IN. DESPITE THE RAIN...THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE
REGION. PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW TDA THRU TNGT WILL HELP DROP H85
TEMPS TO 4 TO 6 DEG C...WHICH WHEN TRANSLATED TO THE SFC STILL LOOKS
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WELL WITHIN THE BOUNDS OF HITTING
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS. THIS WILL BE AFTER A START OF THE DAY TDA
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S...AND WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING
IN PLACE TNGT...SIMILAR LOW TEMPS WILL BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

BY TUESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED WELL EAST
OF THE AREA...THUS TAKING THE COLDEST TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH IT. IN ITS WAKE...A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
CLIMATE NORMALS /60-64 FOR LOWS AND 82-84 FOR HIGHS/ THIS WEEK.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS OF RH DON`T SHOW ANY DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE THIS WEEK WITH 70-90% REMAINING BETWEEN 3-6KFT MUCH OF
THE TIME. THIS SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL GET PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
CUMULUS GIVEN EXPECETD GOOD SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
IT ALSO SUGGESTS 0-5% POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EVEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY LOOK LARGELY PRECIP FREE. THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY
WEEK`S END WILL BE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE A COUPLE GOOD MCS
EVENTS SEEM POSSIBLE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 14.00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF THROUGH 156 HOURS...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE GIVE THE HIGH WAVE NUMBER ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES
OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. BASED ON WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF LEAVE OFF
AT 240 HOURS AND WHERE THE CFS PICKS UP AT WEEK 3...IT APPEARS WE
COULD WARM BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL FOR OUR LATE JULY
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES THAT SHOW UP LOCALLY IN WEEKS 2-3 RETREAT NORTH IN
AUGUST. THIS IS JUST PAR FOR THE COURSE WITH WHAT WE`VE SEEN SINCE
LAST FALL. GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH QUICK BOUTS OF NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

BKN-OVC LOW-END VFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LOW STRADDLING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DROPS OVER THE AREA. BY MID MORNING
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. CLOUD HEIGHTS COULD
BE THREATENING MVFR LEVEL CRITERIA...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WOULD BE
MOSTLY TIED TO HEAVIER SHOWERS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL MVFR REDUCTIONS STILL LOOKS TO BE EAST CENTRAL MN
INTO WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT ALL SITES WARRANT A VCSH MENTION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY...GENERALLY INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 25-28 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 12 KTS AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL SCATTER OUT.

KMSP...
FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BKN BY 14Z MONDAY
AND HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE VFR LEVEL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY LIMIT VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
SUSTAINED 12G18KTS DEVELOP BY 15Z...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO
18G25KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS DECREASE BELOW 10KTS AFTER 02Z
AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS DIMINISH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WIND NNW 5 KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR. WIND SW 5 TO 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS






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