Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 210349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VERY QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE
W...EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO
THE E DURG THE DAY ON TUE. ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WRN MN BY DAYBREAK TUE MRNG
THEN SHIFT ACRS MN AND WI DURG THE DAY ON TUE. THIS DEEP RIDGING
COMBINATION WILL KEEP SKIES NEARLY ENTIRELY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD
THRU TMRW...ASIDE FROM SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...BRINGING STRATOCU
DOWN OVER MAINLY WRN WI. THIS CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH ANY FAIR WX
CU CLOUDS OVER MN...WILL DISSIPATE TNGT THRU TMRW MRNG. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FEW-SCT FAIR WX CU MAY WELL DEVELOP TUE BUT WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DONE LITTLE TO OVERCOME THE
DEEP CAA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING RIDGE...KEEPING HIGHS TDA IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO PLUMMET TO THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TMRW FOR WRN WI...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
50S...MODEST WAA WILL OCCUR FOR CENTRAL-WRN MN WHERE HIGHS TMRW
WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SD
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARM AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN OF 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...TOGETHER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES IN WESTERN MN
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND H850 TEMPS 11-14C EXPECTED FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR RETURNS
SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 70F IF SKIES ARE
CLEAR...BUT ANY CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL HEATING...SO SETTLED
ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MN WILL WORK EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SE WINDS AT 15G25KTS
FOR KAXN AND KRWF FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN TAF SITES WILL SEE SE WINDS ON TUESDAY FROM 8-12 KNOTS.
A CONCERN REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VFR
CEILINGS NEAR KEAU WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THE MVFR AS EACH SUBSEQUENT UPDATE TO THE LAMP PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO BACK AWAY ON THE CEILINGS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY
MORNING AND SE 10 KTS DURING THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
WED NGT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 8KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH






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