Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 151801
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
101 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather persists over the next week or so.

- Mild temperatures linger today, but we`ll return to cooler,
  seasonable temperatures this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Today... Another quiet forecast period with little to no
precipitation forecast over the next 7 days. We`ll see an area of
high pressure move into the Upper Midwest this morning. This will
ultimately not change much compared to yesterday with highs in the
low to mid 50s. West winds start out light but winds will begin to
increase this evening into Saturday. Lows will be in the 30s tonight.

Saturday through Monday... The pattern will shift over the weekend
as a surface low tracks from central Canada into the Great Lakes
region. This will provide for some precipitation chances across
western Wisconsin, but most importantly cooler, more seasonable
temperatures elsewhere. These will likely pop up showers (snow) with
brief impacts possible. Moisture will be limited despite forcing in
place so do not expect widespread precipitation this weekend. More
noticeable for us will be the cooler temperatures and increased
winds. This sfc low will be the catalyst for widespread gusty
northwest winds this weekend as another high pressure will increase
the pressure gradient across the Upper Midwest. The various ensemble
guidance is in good agreement with gusts up around 40 mph likely on
Saturday afternoon. On Saturday, the cold front will move through
and advect much colder air into the area for the remainder of the
weekend. We`ll get a reminder of what seasonable temperatures should
be. This also could be the first time in several weeks where our
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal instead of tens of
degrees above normal. It`ll feel much cooler than it is due the
combination of winds and temps. The winds will begin to decrease on
Sunday with a more noticeable change on Monday.

Tuesday thru Thursday... A shortwave ridge will usher in the return
of WAA across the region on Tuesday. This WAA will allow our highs
to warm back into the lower to mid 40s mid-week. However there
remains a lot of spread with what extent of WAA we will see, so
guidance has quite the spread with high temperatures from down
around freezing up into the mid 40s. So all around not as warm as we
have seen for much of March, but that would still at or above what
we`d typically see for mid-late March. Our normals start to warm up
quickly this time of year with average temperature normals
increasing by a degree every 2 to 3 days. We`ll remain dry with
limited moisture throughout the period. There will be a disturbance
moving through on Thursday, but the lack of any suitable moisture
gives little confidence in anything more than increased cloud cover
& potential virga.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A narrow swath of stratocumulus clouds around 2500-4000 ft is
making its way eastward across central Minnesota this afternoon.
This should scatter out of the area by this evening at the very
latest. High clouds will move back in this evening after a few
hours of clear skies. Strong, and widespread, W to NW winds are
still on track for development tonight behind the passage of a
cold front from the northwest. Wind speeds will increase to
15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts.

KMSP...Scattered cumulus is making its way into the Twin Cities
metro, and could stick around until 23z depending on how much
mixing is able to erode the cloud deck away. VFR conditions are
expected throughout with the main impact being the increase in
W/NW winds overnight into tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G25-35kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BED


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