Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 180112
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
812 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS HAS LED TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TONIGHT DESPITE
SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MINNESOTA.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILL IN AND LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
OVER THE ARROWHEAD HAVE JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BEFORE
ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. A POTENT VORT MAX
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER AND A MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES... ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BUT
A DECENT COLD POOL AND WEAK CAA OR NEUTRAL ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW OR MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER AND A COUPLE
MINOR TEMPERATURES SWINGS...BUT OVERALL...MILD FALL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE
WELL TO THE EAST AND A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TO FINISH
OUT THE WEEKEND. GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN LATELY - AND THE
MIXING POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON - TO GO ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...60S SEEM LIKE A SAFE BET IN MINNESOTA WITH MID TO UPPER
50S IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. DOWN-SLOPING OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE COULD
MEAN A FEW SITES IN WEST CENTRAL MN MAKE A RUN AT 70.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND
PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH
TEMPS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH THE
POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MODIFIES...BUT AT THIS TIME THE COLDEST
POCKET OF AIR SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO MIGHT THEN
BE TOO COOL WITH TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SITES INITIALIZED BETWEEN LOWER-END VFR AND UPPER END MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE 00Z TAF SET AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS SO WILL LOOK FOR ALL SITES TO DROP TO 2-3 KFT
CEILING OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK TMRW. CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
DURG THE DAY TMRW AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. NW TO N WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVE THRU OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME LGT/VRBL
FOR A PERIOD DURG THE DAY TMRW. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.

KMSP...LOW=END VFR CEILINGS TO START BUT UPSTREAM UPPER-END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE MSP AREA DURING THE EVENING
HRS. MVFR CEILINGS...EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1700 FT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MRNG SATURDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AFTN
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGHS CLOUDS RETURN. THE RIDGING WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH TNGT THRU TMRW...
INCLUDING GOING LGT/VRBL TMRW AFTN...BEFORE SHIFTING TO SSE LATE
TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JPC






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