Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 221906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
206 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry weather is expected now through Sunday evening. A cold front
will move through the region, but it will pass through dry although
strong winds are expected in its wake. The main story is early
Tuesday into Wednesday as a powerful storm system develops across
the region and brings 1 to 3 inches of rain across southern MN
and western WI.

For today through Sunday, continued with dry weather and breezy
conditions in the wake of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Confidence is increasing in rain late Monday into Wednesday
morning. A powerful storm system that is currently over the Gulf
of Alaska will round the base of the trough, while upstream a
longwave trough will remain over eastern Quebec. As a the Pacific
wave crosses the Rockies, it will amplify and the upper level
forcing associated with the curvature of the flow will lead to
widespread ascent, clouds, and precipitation. A
northwest/southeast oriented frontal boundary will serve as the
focus for banded precipitation, and should see stratiform
rainfall rates on the order of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour.
Several hours of this precipitation will lead to 2 to 3 inches of
total rainfall, which should fall across southeast MN and west
central WI. This rain will be stratiform, not anticipating any
flash flooding problems. Will likely see ponding of water in low
spots in fields, and some rises on the rivers and small creeks.

Increased pops based on the strength of the system, together with
the model agreement in both time and space, and feel there is
only a 5% chance or so of not seeing measurable precip along

Looking ahead, dry weather will settle in for Thursday, and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will gradually become
southeast, and then northwesterly behind the cold front that is
forecast to pass through the region on Sunday.


VFR conditions. The cold front should pass through around 15 or
16Z with 20kt gusts expected Sunday afternoon.

Mon...VFR. Wind SE at 5KT.
Tue...VFR early, then MVFR/-RA with IFR possible late. Wind E at 10G20kt.
Wed...MVFR/IFR/-ra early. Then MVFR. Wind E at 15G20kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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