Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 201138
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
538 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM  CST THU NOV 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH.  ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WERE COMMON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH ABOUT 7AM. THE
SAVING GRACE FOR THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IS THE PRESENCE OF SOME
WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE HIGH WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST.  EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT IN PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND WILL LIMIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO 900MB...BUT
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE ABOUT -18C.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA...AND WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST...WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BRING A WARMER AIR MASS TO THE
REGION...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WONT SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL
FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN THE NEXT WINTER STORM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

IN THE MEANTIME...FRIDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO
TEMPERATURE MODERATION INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS AND FOG...SO DID NOT GET TOO
OUT OF CONTROL WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. A FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FOG THREAT EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE THE LIFT/MOISTURE
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLE.

SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE 32 DEGREES BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...SO THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED THROUGH THEN FOR EASTERN AREAS. ON SUNDAY...THE TROUGH
LIFTS TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB.
FREEZING/MIXED PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THEN RETURN FOR
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FORCING AND HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOR
EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE PRIMARILY RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL GIVEN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY REALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD OF
HIGHEST CONCERN...GIVEN MODELS TRANSITION THE PTYPE TO SNOW AND
WINDS BECOME BLUSTERY FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO MONITOR THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. STILL TOO EARLY TO REFINE
SNOWFALL ACCUMS...BUT COULD NEAR WATCH CRITERIA GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED WIND SPEEDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING.

BY TUESDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOW IMPROVEMENT...WITH MODELS
INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES RETURN BY THANKSGIVING. AT LEAST ONE SOLUTION SHOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS RETURNING...AND SNOW CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH
SOME LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOWARD EAU CLAIRE. INCLUDED
A SCT020 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT AT THIS POINT HOPEFUL NO
CEILING WILL BE OBSERVED THERE. OTHERWISE FOCUSED ON PROPERLY
TIMING THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. UPDATED GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS TODAY. AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD...WE`LL START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE.

KMSP...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE NO DIFFERENCE
FROM MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW 10G20KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPD






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