Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 122351
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today and Wednesday.

- Best chances for accumulating rain remain across far southern
  MN. Chances quickly taper off further north.

- Temperatures forecast to drop below normal levels Sunday into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Current observations highlight temperatures warming into the 60s
across the region despite light northwest winds behind a FROPA. Our
thermal ridge that led to record breaking high temperatures has
shifted eastward but the frontal passage did little to impact our
air mass. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s later this
afternoon and drop into mid to upper 30s overnight. Wednesday will
be similar to today but winds will shift from the northeast to the
northeast before ending up east-southeast Wednesday afternoon. The
main concern through the next 36 hours will be the elevated fire
weather conditions in place. RH values bottom out in the 20% to 30%
range this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain
light enough that will limit greater concerns.

Thursday continues to be the best chance for any precipitation, but
trends in the 12z guidance are not promising. The non-ECMWF guidance
has trended toward the ECMWF solution of suppressing the storm to the
south and east of upper Mississippi Valley region. The 700mb trough
is now weaker and more progressive that keeps the heaviest
precipitation axis across Iowa rather than Minnesota/Wisconsin. The
trough will dig into the SW CONUS before ejecting a piece of energy
lee of the Rockies. This will prompt a surface low to develop over
Colorado that will trek into southern Iowa on Thursday. This trough
does not eject cleanly, it`ll leave a piece of energy over the Four
Corners region. This lines up with the more progressive solution for
our system as it tracks south through Iowa into into the Great Lakes
region by Friday. The best chance to see any rain will be across I-
90 but PoPs will quickly taper off north of the I-90 corridor. This
sharp gradient in PoPs will also be evident in QPF.

For the weekend, we`ll see a pattern shift as a ridge builds into
western NOAM. Downstream we`ll see troughing dig into the Great
Lakes and eastern NOAM. This troughing and colder air aloft will
lead to potential pop up shower activity Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. Precipitation will start off as rain before transitioning to
snow Saturday night. Impacts should be marginal but any shower could
support brief visibility reductions. If you`re worried about
accumulating snow, there is some "good" news. There will be
little to no snow accumulation expected with these showers. This
pattern should stick around into early next week and a bit
beyond. This should be our first stretch of at or below normal
temperatures since mid-January. It`s important to add that our
average high would be in the low 40s so below average now does
not mean sub zero temperatures! Instead, expect highs in the
mid to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions throughout with northwest winds decreasing
overnight and becoming more northeast for Wednesday. Expect a
few high clouds, but no precipitation.

KMSP...No weather-related aviation concerns. Expect northwest
winds to decrease around sunset and become northeast for
Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/RA. Wind NE 10-15G20-25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 10-15G20kts.
SAT...VFR chc MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JRB


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