000
FXUS63 KMPX 151757
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INCLUDES THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA.  FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  VARIOUS HIRES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
LOCAL MODEL ALL SHOW SOME AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...TRAILING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY FAIRLY HIGH BASED AND ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INCLUDES DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON READINGS
75 TO 80 MOST SECTIONS.  WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND COLD
FRONT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS
SHOULD SLACKEN WINDS FURTHER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH TODAY.  RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL DROP OFF TO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AS WELL
AND WILL HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOULD SEE THE MID CLOUDS EXIT THE SOUTH BY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LEFTOVER MID CLOUDS EXITING INTO WISCONSIN ACROSS CENTRAL MN
DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP OFF WITH AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLEAR...AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW AND
BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS OUT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LIFT THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. ON SATURDAY FOUR
CORNERS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP EXPECTED. KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRANSITION
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW THAT SPINS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGS COOL WET WEATHER. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LEFTOVER -SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
WILL DISSIPATE...OR BECOME ISOLD BY THE MID AFTN HRS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MPX TAFS. ANY CIGS WILL BE AOA 9K AS LCL/S REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS S MN/WC WI. SOME CIGS OF 5K ARE POSSIBLE IN SW MN
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS N MN
WILL MAINLY SPREAD E/ESE...AND CLIP THE NORTHERN FA...BUT NOT MPX
TAFS. WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE W/WNW...WILL BECOME MORE SW AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL MN BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THRU 15Z/16...WITH A MORE E/ENE DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING.

KMSP...

ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL BE AOA 11K. -SHRA WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AREA. W/WNW WINDS ARND 8-10 KTS THIS
AFTN...WILL BECOME MORE SW OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 4
KTS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE
MORE OUT OF THE ENE/E AND INCREASE SLIGHT BY THE AFTN ARND 8 KTS.
MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
AFT 03Z/17.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU NIGHT...CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFT 6Z. E/SE WINDS ARND 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS. CHC IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. SE WNDS 5-10
KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT