Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 111005
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Very light precipitation is possible before 9 am in portions of
south central, and southeast Minnesota, as well as west central
Wisconsin. However, most of the deeper moisture has left the region,
which leads to any chances of measurable precipitation very low.
Otherwise, clouds will clear slowly from west to east over south
central and east central Minnesota late this morning, and into the
afternoon. Central and west central Minnesota will have more
sunshine today with temperatures rising into the 30s and 40s. A cold
front will move southeast across the state later today. Behind this
front, cooler air will filter into the region, but not as cold as it
has been. Look for temperatures slightly below normal on Sunday, but
much warmer than it has been.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

High pressure will drift overhead Sunday and Sunday night. Return
flow will develop late Sunday night and prevent temperatures from
falling into the teens on a widespread basis.

Southerly flow will be in place through Tuesday. Temperatures
Monday will finally return to normal, but will exceed normal
values by 10-15 degrees Tuesday. Thermal ridging snaking up ahead
of another approaching cold front may send highs into the
mid/upper 50s if those +8 to +10C 925 mb temps pan out during the
afternoon. The thought is this probably won`t happen with low
level clouds developing in a strong WAA regime, but we should get
into the lower to middle 50s across most of MN south of I-94. NAM
is exhibiting its typical overly moist and cold boundary layer
bias where it thinks snow cover will remain. A front will pass
through Tuesday evening as deeper moisture finally arrives to
break out some rain across eastern MN and western WI.

A brief shot at colder air for midweek, before models still hint
at a stronger system traversing the nation`s mid section late next
week. Model consistency remains quite poor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

An area of snow will continue to affect eastern sites
(KMKT/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU) into the overnight hours. Associated MVFR
conditions are expected with the snow, along with lingering MVFR
ceilings at KMKT/KRNH/KEAU on Saturday morning. There has been
patchy mixed precip (freezing drizzle) along the western edge of
the snow area, so sites may see a brief period of light freezing
precip before it tapers off. Sleet is also possible, primarily
down toward KMKT where the radar echoes appear more convective in
nature. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday at the
other sites, with low clouds gradually scattering out. Gusty
southeast winds gradually decrease overnight to speeds AOB 10
knots by daybreak, and then veer to the south/southwest as the
front approaches. The cold front passes through western/northern
sites (KAXN/KRWF/KSTC) by the end of the period (Saturday p.m.),
so expect a shift to the northwest at those locations.

KMSP...
Snow will continue at the start of the period, tapering off by
around 08z. There could be a brief period of light freezing
drizzle at the tail end of the precip, but ice accumulations are
not expected. MVFR cigs will linger in the wake of the precip until
around 11z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon- Tue...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS



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