000
FXUS63 KMPX 120839
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
339 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Springlike weather this weekend with highs in the 70s and low
  80s area wide.

- Confidence increasing in soaking rains Monday-Wednesday. Most
  locations should see over an inch of rain along with a few
  rumbles of thunder.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Early morning satellite imagery with
RAP13 surface analysis showed an area of low pressure across the
Great Lakes, with clearing skies, upper level ridging, and
surface high pressure across the Dakotas. This are of high
pressure will shift eastward today, setting the stage for a
sunny afternoon with light winds. This high pressure will be
short-lived, as a surface trough moves through on Saturday.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of this trough, bringing
warm air across the region. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s
for most locations, with 80s across southwest Minnesota. One
concern for Saturday is the potential for near-critical fire
weather conditions. Forecast soundings show wind gusts of 20 to
30 mph, with RH values in the 20s. Fortunately we have started
to green up a bit.

Saturday night could have some showers and thunderstorms across
northern Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the leading edge of
the warm air advection. Mid level lapse rates are on the order
of 8C/km with 500-1000J/kg of MUCAPE. We do expect some storms
to develop, but not sure how far south they will be. As of now,
don`t anticipate anything south of I-94 until you get into
Wisconsin. These will quickly move off to the east, and high
pressure will settle in for Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler than Saturday as winds will be lighter, but overall
expect another gorgeous day, perfect for outdoor artwork in
advance of the impending rain early next week.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Confidence is high that a large and
slow moving system will bring widespread rain across the
region. Another area of warm air advection with steep mid level
lapse rates will spark showers and thunderstorms across North
dakota Sunday night, and these will arc eastward into northern
Minnesota by Monday morning. They should weaken on Monday as the
nocturnal jet wanes, but the overall synoptic forcing of ascent
ahead of a upper level PV anomaly will lead to increasing clouds
and rain chances Monday afternoon into Monday evening. By Monday
night, widespread rain should be ongoing across the region, with
the heaviest rain expected to lift up from the south on Tuesday.
There is currently an SPC Day4 outlook to the south across Iowa,
but this is only for a 15 percent, which equates to a slight
risk area. At the very least, it is likely that there will be a
general thunder, but forecast soundings for Minnesota and
Wisconsin show skinny CAPE, which is not very supportive of
severe weather despite the strong wind shear profile. This
system will be slow to exit the region, and there is a chance
for another shortwave trough to follow quickly on its heels for
later this week. For that reason, have precipitation chances
continuing through Thursday. By the time the system finally does
end, most locations should see at least an inch of
precipitation, with a few localize spots of 2 inches. There was
some discussion of needing an excessive rainfall outlook, but
the flooding risk is low given the relatively dry soils, and
low water levels in rivers and storage areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions through the period, with SCT mid-level clouds
clearing out through the morning. Northwest winds around 10 kts
overnight will increase after sunset, with gusts of 20-25 kts
developing by late morning & continuing through sunset. Winds
drop below 5 kts after sunset, with the direction becoming more
southeasterly overnight.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15g25kts
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR bcmg MVFR. Chc -RA late. Wind SE 10-15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...ETA