Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 181805
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
105 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

SUB-1000MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MN CONTINUES TO FACILITATE WINDY
CONDITIONS AND STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SLIGHT LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIP
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY /SUSTAINED 30 MPH/...SO WILL
NOT REISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN MN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLIP SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. HAVE MAINTED HIGH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD NORTHERN WI...AND ALSO
INCLUDED SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE TWIN CITIES AND
AREAS DOWN TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...AVERAGING 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 IN WEST
CENTRAL MN NEAR ALEXANDRIA...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH ANTICIPATED LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY SORT OF A FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY GIVEN SCT-BKN
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG IN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE IN THE 6-10 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
WITH A COOL PERIOD THIS WEEK...THEN WETTER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START THIS WEEK FROM THE W-NW
DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST...SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
BASICALLY THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRY E/NE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHERN MN. EVEN
IN THIS AREA...VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...BUT THE DENSER
CLOUD COVER...AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WILL KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORTH IN CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR.

CLIMATOLOGY...THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AFTN HIGHS
SLOWLY REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SW CONUS...AND A STRONGER RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT MODELS
DEPICTION OF THE MAIN SFC FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF MN/IA BORDER...MN
AND WESTERN WI MAY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL
SHRA/TSRA...BUT NOT AS WARM. THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STRENGTHENS AND ALLOWS THIS SFC FRONT TO MOVE
FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO MN. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE SVR WX
CHANCES AS WE WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND. STILL HAVE COLD POOL TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISOLD -SHRA
INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. THIS MAY AFFECT CLOUD TRENDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK OVER SOUTHWEST
AREA...WITH MORE CUFORM CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE HIGHER END
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN MN THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL TRY AND SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES EAST. THEY MAY HOLD FIRM FARTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD TREND IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE AREA GUSTS OVER 30KT TO THE WEST...SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KTS INTO TUE WITH CLEARING TREND.

KMSP...
MVFR CIGS INTO THE NIGHT WITH VFR TRENDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LOW CIGS MAY DROP AGAIN INTO THE HE
EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS INTO THE EVENING. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF
-RA/-DZ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL...BUT FORCING IS
LACKING. NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT GUSTY INTO THE EVENING BECOMING
MORE NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 5 TO 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE



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