Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 102211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The short term concerns remain advisory for blowing snow/wind and
snow ending into western Wisconsin early this evening.  Then more
snow expected into the day Wednesday

Snow tapering into western Wisconsin this afternoon. Still see some
streets of snow in the strong winds behind the departing area of low
pressure and upper trough over western Minnesota. Strong northwest
winds in steep lower level lapse rates/caa regime over the area.
WInd gusts around 35kts were common to the west. This generated the
poor visibility and drifting snow across the wets and south as the
low departed over Wisconsin. We expect winds to diminish from west
to east during the early evening and should help alleviate the
blowing snow issues. We will leave the advisory continue through
expiration for the wind/blowing snow and snow ending to the east.
Temperatures will continue to tumble to slightly below zero to the
far west and 5 to 10 above in the far east.

The next system is already fast on this systems heels...with
isentropic lift moving rapidly northeast over the northern cwa late
tonight. We continued the likely pops scenario developing north and
toward east central MN 09z-12z Wed. This will likely affect a
portion of the morning commute as well. At the moment we have a
healthy 2 inches across east central MN into west central WI.
Strong banded frontogenesis is forecast to drop south over the area
during the day Wednesday as the strong upper jet/150kt 30h jet moves
off to the east. The snow should end from northwest to southeast
through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The last in a string of weather systems will be exiting the area
Wednesday night with any residual light snow being East of the CWA
by daybreak Thursday. The departing clipper will leave one parting
gift for us as an arctic airmass and gusty NW winds follow in its
wake during the day on Thursday. Raised winds during the day
Thursday as forecast soundings show the potential for gusts of 20-25
kts at the top of the well-mixed, but shallow boundary layer. Winds
will quickly drop after sunset as a strong 1045 mb high slides over
the area Thursday night into Friday morning. The calm winds, clear
skies, and few inches of new snow this week will provide ideal
conditions for radiational cooling. Friday morning should see the
coldest temperatures since mid-December with lows in the -20s out
west to -10 along the I-90 corridor.

Thankfully, this shot of Arctic air will be short-lived as southerly
flow becomes dominant on the back side of the departing high with
temperatures warming into upper teens for Saturday & the mid-20s by
Sunday. Our only precipitation chances for the weekend look to be
Friday night across far southern MN as a weak shortwave approaches
from the south, but only a slight chance of light snow is expected
at this time.

The start of next week has the potential to be active
as as cutoff low ejects out of the SW US and treks towards the
Mississippi River valley Monday. However there is still disagreement
with Euro & GFS on how closely it approaches southern Minnesota and
as such, precipitation amounts are still unclear. Otherwise, warm
weather will continue into mid-week with temperatures averaging
around 10 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

Light snow will be possible through most of the period at the TAF
sites, but the main window for snow that will accumulate and lower
vsbys will be after 11z Tuesday. Other than a brief scattering in
the low cloud (MVFR) deck from central MN into west central WI
this eve, expect MVFR and IFR cigs to become prevalent overnight,
with vsbys lowering to IFR with the snow on Tuesday as well.
Southeast winds 08-15 knots with gusts into the lower 20s shift to
northwest Tuesday with gusts into the mid 20s developing.

Other than the possibility of flurries, precip has ended until the
early morning hours. May see a bit of a wintry mix prior to
daybreak, but we are more confident on the snow which will arrive
around 12z. Cigs/vsbys will be prevalent mvfr with the snow with
occasional reductions during the morning to around or slightly
below 1SM (similar to today). The snow should taper off by 00z
Wed. Southeast winds with gusts to around 20kts this eve become
lighter and variable by daybreak, the shift to the northwest by
the afternoon and increase. Expect gusts to around 25 kts during
the afternoon.

Wed...VFR. MVFR with -SN possible late. Wind W 5-10 kt bcmg N.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kt.
Fri...VFR. Wind variable 5 kt or less.


WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for



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