Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 231136 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE SECOND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM OF THE WEEK HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN DEW POINTS
20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK
EAST THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
BRUSH PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING...NONE
OF WHICH WILL BE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REST OF THE AREA FOR A TIME...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON BUT CYCLONIC
FLOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD DRIFT
OVER RUSK COUNTY. THE MOST IMPACTFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENT TODAY
WILL BE THE WIND. A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW MID
20 TO LOW 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND WHILE WINDS WILL EASE...THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. THEREFORE...THINK THE AREA WILL BE
SPARED FROM RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOLER AND DRIER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
ALLOWS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY YET ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN.  BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOW IN THE MID 40S.

AS THE HIGH DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER...
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF ANY
SHORT WAVE THAT RIDES OVER THE RIDGE WITH THE RESULTANT RAIN THREAT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN TRIES
TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF CIRCULATION NEAR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS AND STALLS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND HOPE THEY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

MVFR CIGS UNDER WRAP AROUND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST
TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY MID AFTERNOON.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
KT EXPECTED TODAY...EASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT.

KMSP...MAY SEE SOME CIGS FALL TO FL015-017 EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CIGS RISE DURING THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 15G25KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. WIND W/SW 5-7KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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